Edward Chancellor: “The Price of Time”
On this episode, financial historian Edward Chancellor joins Nate to give a meta-history of interest rates and human societies.
On this episode, financial historian Edward Chancellor joins Nate to give a meta-history of interest rates and human societies.
Certain stories recur in the history of humanity – and one of the most dramatic and traumatic is that of hubris. Hubris is a drama brought about by actions motivated by excessive pride – for example the overestimation by leaders – and the society or institutions in their charge – of their power.
The Fed is aggressively raising interest rates, although inflation is contained, private debt is already at 150% of GDP, and rising variable rates could push borrowers into insolvency. So what is driving the Fed’s push to “tighten”?
The Federal Reserve would like to raise target interest rates because of inflation concerns and concern that asset bubbles are forming. It seems to me that raising interest rates at this time is very ill advised.
At first glance it is hard to see how oil, interest rates and debt are connected. Two of them are human constructs while oil (fossil sunlight), a gift from Mother Nature, took tens of millions of years to process.
There are many who believe that the use of energy is critical to the growth of the economy. In fact, I am among these people. The thing that is not as apparent is that growth in energy consumption is dependent on the growth of debt.
Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, the question comes back to, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?”
What follows are the continuance of my research, discussions, observations and thoughts around the nexus of debts, interest rates and the oil price.
The price of oil is down. How should we expect the economy to perform in 2015 and 2016?
The world economy is slowing down and the authorities are fretting.
How far the oil price will come down and for how long it will stay “low” is now anyone’s guess. A declining price results from weakening demand while supplies are improving.
The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years.