The more uncertain we are, the more careful we should be

It is a staple of apologists for the chemical and fossil fuel industries to say, "We have no proof that what you are talking about is dangerous." Let me restate that in probabilistic terms: "We are highly uncertain about the harm of what you are talking about."

Bubble time: Friends and relatives act as if we’ve returned to business-as-usual

It is a testament to the psychological power of financial bubbles that people who know and trust me and generally accept the analysis I’ve put forth in my writings over the last decade are jumping into the stock market again with a pledge that they are in for the long term–no matter what.