If you haven’t been paying attention, U.S. crude oil + condensate production reached a peak in 2019 at 12.29 million barrels/day (mb/d) on an annual basis.
What is less known, however, is that spending on oil exploration is fast dropping in the United States. Exploratory drilling has been decreasing year after year and now stands at only five percent of its 1981 peak.
Sometime in the next few years, global oil output will indeed start to fall and the fact will be undeniable—even though the cause will likely be attributed to a financial or economic crash. But even if tenacious peak oil supply theorists feel vindicated, confirmation of their warnings will carry no sweetness.
All the hype about America being a major energy exporter isn’t hype, it’s just plain wrong. And, the idea that it will become one in the long run isn’t supported by the available facts.
In a joint post Art Berman and Matt Mushalik analyzed US crude oil inventories as reported by the EIA.
The latest EIA drilling productivity report (11th April 2016) shows US shale oil production continuing to decline in Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara while the Permian has flattened out.
Contrary to general belief, and mis-information by the media the US is far away from being “energy independent” in terms of crude oil imports.
You want $40 oil? Yes, please. But according to the World Energy Outlook 2015 of the International Energy Agency, recently released in London, that would mean 3 mb/d less US tight (shale) oil by 2020.
Whatever happened to “peak oil” – the assertion that the rate at which oil is extracted from the Earth is nearing a maximum or peak level?
America’s energy future is largely determined by the assumptions and expectations we have today.
They say that the first casualty of war is truth. And, on both sides of the fight over lifting the ban on exports of U.S. crude oil, the truth has already fallen into a coma. The ban was instituted in 1975 in order to make America less subject to swings in international oil supply after suffering the price shock associated with the Arab oil embargo in 1973.
U.S. oil production has begun to drop in response to low oil prices, but not as dramatically as many had anticipated.