The argument between orthodox economists and their critics resembles one that occurred in weather forecasting in the mid-nineteenth century, with the establishment of the UK Meteorology Office in 1854 by Admiral Robert FitzRoy.
OK. Which curve on this chart is not like the others? It’s the U.S. and Canada’s oil production curve over the past several years.
It is a staple of apologists for the chemical and fossil fuel industries to say, "We have no proof that what you are talking about is dangerous." Let me restate that in probabilistic terms: "We are highly uncertain about the harm of what you are talking about."
It is well to remember that none of people making forecasts can know the one thing they all desperately want to know: the future.
It’s easy to get bad advice from successful people. Here’s why: Successful people assume that the same circumstances that prevailed while they were achieving their success will generally prevail while you are pursuing yours.
Here’s the short version of why forecasts of low long-term oil and natural gas prices are almost certainly wrong: It costs more than that to get the stuff out of the ground.