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Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Gail Tverberg Scientific American presents “A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030” in its November issue. In many ways, it sounds good. But let’s think about the details: What would the end result look like? Would it really be sustainable? What would the costs really be? Is there any way we could afford to do what is proposed?
I had the enormous pleasure this weekend of chairing our synagogues Scholar-in-Residence weekend, and thus hearing three talks by Rabbi Jill Hammer, Midrashist and author of _Sisters at Sinai_ and _The Jewish Book of Days_. Rabbi Hammer is an extremely fine and thoughtful teacher, and I learned a great deal about the nature and process of Midrash (that is, the stories both ancient and modern Jews tell to answer questions raised by Biblical texts).
Much of the migration we are seeing today is from countries which export resources to wealthy nations. In other words, we are seeing mass migrations from resource exporting countries where carrying capacity is being systematically undermined toward countries that are importing that carrying capacity.
The poor in the South African townships are feeling the brunt of it already, a growing electricity crisis that will squeeze already meagre household incomes, spur inflation, add to the costs of essential foods, and raise transport costs in a country whose mass transport systems are utterly inadequate. Already saddled with a more than 30% hike in metered power costs for this year, they were told to expect a hike of a further 150% over the next three years.
I think the question of land access may end up being the central political issue of the coming century. In both the rich world and the poor world, we’ve systematically deprived people of easy access to land. We have driven up the price of land in the rich world by encouraging sprawl, and thus forced out agrarian populations that previous fed cities. We have pushed people into cities in the name of globalization and industrialization, and claimed their land for speculation.
At the Denver ASPO conference, I had the good fortune to meet Dr. Albert Bartlett. Afterward, Dr. Bartlett e-mailed me some material he had written over the years. The “Laws of Sustainability” were included in this material. They are part of Al Bartlett’s contribution to the anthology The Future of Sustainability by Marco Keiner, published in 2006.
-Coping With Climate Change: Which Societies Will Do Best?
-GM’s Money Trees
-The Carnivore’s Dilemma
-USDA Research: Does No-Till Really Capture More Carbon?
-Why growing virgin vegetable oil to burn is crazy
-Pachauri Still Sees a Chance for Success in Copenhagen Talks
-The Inferno
-A Plan to Power 100 Percent of the Planet with Renewables
-Farms going green to save and survive
-Solar power from Sahara a step closer
-Nearly 200 Organizations and Companies Urge Senate to Adopt Key Energy-Efficiency Provision in Climate Bill
-Report Argues for a Decentralized System of Renewable Power Generation
-Scientists Reveals Secrets Of Drought Resistance
-Speaker says water limitations not recognized
-A Drought-Stricken Land Offers Help With Water
-A Victory for the ‘Water Underground’
-EROWI – energy return of water invested
-Jonathan Safran Foer’s ‘Eating Animals’ Book Will Fundamentally Change the Way You Think About Food
-Back to the Land: The New Green Revolution
-Farm Aid
-Georgia growers filling organic niche market
-Discussing the future of urban agriculture in KC
Tuesday will see the release of the influential International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009. Last year’s blockbuster from the report was the declaration that the equivalent of 6 Saudi Arabia’s would need to come online by 2030 in order to meet demand and offset depletion of existing fields.
What Arthur Berman is saying is that natural gas companies that extract shale are mis-estimating how quickly natural gas production will decline in the future–they are assuming gas production will decline more slowly than evidence indicates it will. As a result of their optimistic assumptions about decline rates, they are assuming that shale gas can profitably be extracted for as long as 50 years, when Berman believes the average well life is only about 8 years.
