Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Oil demand appears to finally be responding to high oil prices, most significantly in the US where petrol prices have hit $4/gallon. The IEA cut its 2011 demand forecast by 190,000 barrels/day on news of increased US stockpiles and reduced consumption, and prices dropped back from recent highs to around $110/barrel for Brent…
The ASPO conference was back to the old continent with a joint organization by ASPO-Belgium and ASPO-Netherlands. Set at the political heart of Europe with an ambitious programme that called in many speakers outside the ASPO circle, even outside the ASPO view of the world, the expectation was high.
-Pioneering wind energy study looks 30-50 years ahead for global warming impact
-Wind industry and Decc urged to come clean on output of wind farms
-Why Germany’s offshore wind parks have stalled
People in power seem to be waking up to the importance of oil and talking about it in public in ways that they never have before. But this raises some questions: Do they (or we) have any idea about the likely impacts of different interventions proposed to deal with energy problems? and how can the energy implications of different interventions be assessed?
In this essay I aim to answer these questions with reference to a paper published in Energy Policy titled “The energy implications of replacing car trips with bicycle trips in Sheffield, UK”.
Architecture is not an aloof and isolated subject; it is a part of the wholeness of place and buildings. Unfortunately Norwegian bureaucrats and architects have for some decades now had the idea of contrasting “old” and “modern”. The result is that almost all the beautiful wooden hotels of Fjord Norway from late 19th and early 20th century are destroyed through exceptionally ugly modernistic extension work — watching it is like getting glass splinters in your eyes.
– From Far Labs, a Vivid Picture Emerges of Japan Crisis
– Nuclear’s green cheerleaders forget Chernobyl at our peril
– Naoto Kan and the End of ‘Japan Inc.’
– Why ‘Plan B’ often works out badly
– Why Were We Unprepared for Japan?
– Japan’s ‘black swan’: Scientists ponder the unparalleled dangers of unlikely disasters
– Calculating calamity: Japan’s nuclear accident and the “antifragile” alternative
The oil price firmed to around $117 this week as evidence emerged of the impact of the Libyan crisis on the oil supply. Bloomberg reported that OPEC oil output dropped in March as Saudi Arabia failed to make up the loss in production from Libya. Reuters reported that Saudi has unexpectedly called on oil companies to expand its drill count by 30%. It is not clear whether this is in an attempt to add further spare capacity, or whether the kingdom is struggling to raise production.
– Nuclear Rules in Japan Relied on Old Science
– Countering Radiation Fears With Just the Facts
– Nukes and Quakes (prescient 1996 article)
– Permaculture Research Institute: What To Do With Nuclear Boy?
The question is whether we can continue to ramp up electrical production by 2% or more a year if the contribution from nuclear is declining. If nuclear production needs to be scaled back, we may need a major downshift in our expectations regarding future electricity consumption.
On the surface, Smart Grids sound ‘green’ – with promises of saving energy, creating new power-line corridors run on wind and solar, way-stations to power-up electric vehicles, energy-efficient upgrades to an aging power infrastructure, and real-time customer knowledge of electricity use.
But few who actually study how these new systems functionwant anything to do with them. Other than those who stand to make enormous profits and the physicists or engineers who dream up such stuff, Smart Grids are giving knowledgeable people the willies.
While efficiency, substitution are key to our efforts to adapt to resource limits, they are incapable of removing those limits, and are themselves subject to the law of diminishing returns>
