Shale Oil

Is shale oil production from Bakken headed for a run with “The Red Queen”?

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In this post I present the results from an in depth time series analysis from wells producing crude oil (and small volumes of natural gas) from the Bakken (Bakken, Sanish, Three Forks and Bakken/Three Forks Pools) formation in North Dakota. The analysis uses actual production data from the North Dakota Industrial Commission as of July 2012 from what was found to be a representative selection of wells from operating companies and areas.

Tar sands, oil shale, and heavy oil: Why the conventional wisdom about unconventional oil is likely to be wrong

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In the old days, that is before 2010, the oil industry used to regale the public with tales of plenty that revolved around what is commonly called "conventional oil." Then in its 2010 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency announced that the peak in the rate of production of conventional oil had already arrived, probably in 2006. The agency projected that production of so-called "unconventional oil" would grow considerably over the coming decades and allow total oil production to rise. But, new unconventional oil production may not be able to make up for the decline in the rate of conventional oil production. And, rate is the key metric.

Whither peak oil?

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An update is warranted to address comments from friends and followers – comments such as “Gee, I guess Peak Oil has been postponed?”, or “I guess we don’t have to worry about Peak Oil anymore!” Often they have a smile on their face …

The shale oil plays will reduce but not eliminate our reliance on foreign oil. Should a supply disruption occur over the next decade, we will be better off having this production than not. The natural gas and NGL from these plays will provide high-quality, low-carbon heat energy for electricity as well as feedstock for plastics – which could help jumpstart manufacturing.

Overall, these plays don’t solve the much larger issue of Peak Oil, but they do help “buy time.”

Review: Too Much Magic by James Kunstler

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…Kunstler has a new work of social criticism titled Too Much Magic, his first nonfiction book since The Long Emergency came out in 2005. The book is an inquiry into a skewed, delusional perception of reality that Kunstler thinks has become “baseline normal for the American public lately.” Americans, he says, have been led astray by the incredible technological advancements of recent times. We’ve come to believe that any problem we face is solvable—as if by magic—with the application of some new technology.

Fool me twice, shame on me: The oil industry repackages the fake abundance story (from the late 1990s)

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Only the oil industry would now have the audacity once again to peddle a story that it has gotten wrong for more than a decade as if it were brand new. Enlisting the media and its army of paid consultants, the industry is once again telling the public that oil abundance is at hand. And, what is doubly audacious is that it is promoting this tale as oil prices hover at levels more than eight times the 1999 low.

Tight oil could not render OPEC irrelevant

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Steve Levine has a blog post discussing the idea that the “unfolding new age of fossil fuel abundance” will have profound effects on various things, including OPEC…The key factor behind this kind of thinking is the rapid rise of production of oil from tight rocks like the Bakken in North Dakota and the Eagle Ford in Texas. I haven’t taken a strong position on what the limits of production are from these sources – it just isn’t clear to me yet from the data that I have available. But we could certainly place some limits on how much geopolitical impact this could have on OPEC.

Peak oil – July 10

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– Peak Oil Reloaded (1/2)
– « Nier l’imminence du pic pétrolier est une erreur tragique », dit l’ancien expert pétrolier de l’AIE
– Nicole Foss: The Guardian Is Ignoring The Critical Paradox Of Peak Oil
– The world is oil rich so let’s all enjoy it while we are here
– How Many Years Of Oil Do We Have Left To Run Our Industrial Civilization, Keeping In Mind That Oil Is A Resource And Has An Economical End?
– Europa am Peak
– Le altre fossili, la sfida dello shale

Review: Was a Time When by Sam Penny

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The novel describes a future in which humans have evolved into an entirely new species, the Neu-humans. They are distinguished by their short tails, freckled appearance and super-intelligence—along with a strong tribal sensibility that compels them to tread lightly upon the planet and always make decisions rationally. The story involves an archaeological journey to the “Lands of Oregon,” from what is now northern Canada, to discover the missing link between humans and Neu-humans. The year is 3100.

Review: Jeff Rubin on The End of Growth

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Jeff Rubin is currently touring his new book, The End Of Growth. As the former Chief Economist for CIBC World Markets he brings an intimate knowledge of financial markets and how they work to the peak oil/end of growth community populated by other venerable thinkers such as Richard Heinberg, Chris Martenson and John Michael Greer.

Energy and peak oil – May 17

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– Can we please just declare the end of ‘peak oil’ and start worrying about something important?
– The U.S. Has A Lot Of Shale Oil, So What?
– Chevron VP: Technology can unlock new fields, curb fears of peak oil
– The Biggest Threat to High Oil Prices
– Amory Lovins: A 50-year plan for energy (video)
– U.S. energy independence is no longer just a pipe dream

Energy – May 10

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– Thomas Homer-Dixon: Exploring the climate “mindscape” (oil supplies and energy junk)
– Government influence is negative for energy fuel policy
– The German Switch from Nuclear to Renewables
– Scientists’ Arctic drilling plan aims to demystify undersea greenhouse gases
– Ancien directeur de TOTAL: Nouvelles découvertes et gaz de schiste retarderont à peine le pic pétrolier