Peak oil notes – Sept 1
A midweek update of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
-Exxon, Moscow, and the Arctic
A midweek update of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
-Exxon, Moscow, and the Arctic
3 years on from the worst economic crisis since the great depression and things are looking…well worse really. What is going on, and what actions should we be taking? Read our web chat with Nate and Richard.
Last month Wards Auto published a story pointing out that the world’s motor vehicle count was now over 1 billion. This milestone is a good opportunity to ponder just where transportation is going in the next 25 years and beyond. There are of course many unknowns to this question, but trends are already in place.
“Imagining a world without oil” describes in stark detail what might happen if one day the world decided to decommission all its oil tankers, rigs, pipelines and strategic reserves. The authors, environmental scientist Steve Hallett and journalist John Wright, expect that we’d initially see sky-high prices and long lines at pumps. After a few weeks, fuel wouldn’t be had at any price and even first-world citizens would struggle to stay fed and out of the elements. This is no Hollywood doomsday scenario—it’s a levelheaded extrapolation from current trends in the fast deteriorating world energy situation. [An essay prefiguring the book originally appeared in The Washington Post.]
Last week the Bundeswehr posted an English version (112 pgs) of their extraordinary analysis of peak oil. The original German document (125 pgs) was approved for public release last November, yet neither the complete German version nor the partial English translation has attracted interest from mainstream media. Now that a complete translation is available, it is hoped that media throughout the English-speaking world will see the Bundeswehr study for what it is: a comprehensive, realistic analysis of one of the most formidable challenges of this century, the (potentially imminent) peaking of global oil production.
One of the saddest aspects of the Internet is that it so often fails to make us smarter. In a mutant version of Gresham’s Law, loud amateurs too-often drown out the voices of experts. Here we an excerpt from a 1975 book that tells us more about Peak Oil than a typical dozen posts on most peak oil websites. [Excerpt from Sir Ronald Prain’s classic “Copper: the anatomy of an Industry”]
– Aleklett’s new book: “Peeking at Peak Oil”
– Economist James Hamilton on “Fundamentals, speculation, and oil prices”
– Has Peak Oil Come To The Non-Opec World? Maybe. (Forbes)
The September issue of the American Journal of Public Health is now available online featuring 8 studies and articles by an interdisciplinary set of experts, each examining the health risks posed by peak petroleum and what can be done to mitigate and protect against the onset of a major spike in energy prices.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-Restarting Libyan exports
-The Keystone pipeline
-Gas in the Marcellus shale
-Quote of the week
Briefs
One of the hardest concepts for many Americans to absorb is this – that technical feasibility rests on a complex bed of other feasibilities and never stands alone. Thus, simply observing that it is technically possible to, say, create zero impact cities or to run our cars on corn waste does not usefully tell us whether we are going to do so or not. This historical reality stands in stark contrast to the perceptions that many of us have, which is that technology operates as a kind of vending machine into which one puts quarters and gets inevitable results.
As rebels take Tripoli, foreign powers are eyeing the prize of Libya’s high quality crude oil. There are vast oil spoils to distribute. The Libyan oil industry produced 1.6 million barrels a day prior to the war. The country is thought to have 46 billion barrels of reserves – the largest in Africa.
The war in Libya entered the endgame this week: fighting continues, and fierce pockets of resistance remain, but oil companies are already queuing up to get back into action. Estimates vary on how quickly, and indeed whether Libya can return to its 2010 production capacity.