Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
One becomes nervous when a consensus begins to form around a Big New Idea — it starts to sound like group think. So what are we to make of the cottage industry developing around the notion that the U.S. not only isn’t facing an impending oil shortage — it is on the cusp of being nearly energy independent, short of a margin of barrels that will be imported from friendly Canada and Mexico?
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-The EU debt crisis
-Shortages in China
-Cold fusion test
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
At first glance, Jan Lundberg and Amanda Kovattana seem like unlikely kindred spirits. He’s a former oil analyst turned whistleblower and rock musician, while she’s a British-educated Thai émigré who makes her living helping people become organized. Yet their similarities run deep, beginning with a profound concern for the planet and a flair for writing. Indeed, both are indispensable contributors to one of the top news sites on energy and the environment, Energy Bulletin. Both also happen to be accomplished memoirists, and their memoirs offer rare insights into family relationships, the vicissitudes of wealth and the quandary of being an environmentalist in an environmentally apathetic age.
The Club of Rome, in collaboration with the Dept. of Environment and Energy of the City of Basel, Switzerland, recently convened a two-day international conference entitled The Future of Energy and the Interconnected Challenges of the 21st Century. The meeting was held October 17 and 18, 2011, at the Hôtel des Trois Rois in Basel. The conference -by invitation only- brought together a group of about 30 scientists from around the globe to discuss issues relating to resource depletion (Peak Oil) and climate change. Also present was a delegation of the Basel City government including the mayor and the minister for energy as well as several members of parliament. This report summarizes some of the outcomes of our discussions. [Cellier gives special attention to Switzerland and the city of Basel]
It seems to me that we may be reaching Limits to Growth,” as foretold in the book by the same name in 1972. The book modeled the consequences of a rapidly growing world population and finite resource supplies. A wide range of scenarios was tested, but the result in nearly all scenarios was overshoot and collapse, with the timing of collapse typically being in the 2010 to 2075 time period. The authors of Limits to Growth did not model the full interactions of the system. One element omitted was how debt would impact the system. Another item omitted was how prices for oil and other resources would affect the system.
Markets jumped on Thursday as the Eurozone patched together yet another deal to relieve its debt crisis. The high spirits saw 3% added to the FTSE amid hope that the deal will buy time to develop a permanent solution – if that is possible. Meanwhile the turbulence in the markets is being increasingly reflected in the streets through the growing Occupy movement, and continuing demonstrations in Spain and Greece…
Since the turn of the century, light oil, the highest quality hydrocarbon, has given civilization extraordinary energy gains and fueled all the trappings of modern life. But the rapid development of bitumen, one of the world’s most expensive and heaviest hydrocarbons, has clearly signaled the end of cheap oil. Like most unconventional fuels, bitumen takes more energy to make than conventional oil. In fact, bitumen production requires so much natural gas for processing and enrichment that it now accounts for one-fifth of Canada’s natural gas demand. The extravagant use of natural gas to produce a lower grade fossil fuel is unprecedented.
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
– EIA shale predictions need closer scrutiny, peak oil group says (ASPO-USA)
– Cassandra in the 21st century: ASPO-Italy 5 in Florence on Oct 28
– Saving energy: reliability of national energy flows (PDF) (Jean Laherrère of ASPO-France) – UPDATED
– Jeff Rubin: Peak Oil Is About Price, Not Supply
– Soaring prices push Queen close to ‘fuel poverty’
Statements from petroleum geologists and analysts supporting ASPO-USA’s call for “Truth in Energy”regarding the possibility of a near-term oil crisis and long-term oil shortages:
Robert L. Hirsch (co-author of “The Hirsch Report”), Tom Whipple (former CIA analyst), Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (U.S. Army), Art Berman and Jeffrey J. Brown (petroleum geologists), as well as Jim Baldauf and Jan Lars Mueller of ASPO-USA.
The idea of the “energy trap” is that an increasing number of Americans are caught between the cost of gasoline and a systemic inability to stop driving their cars. In the last 60 years America has become a “motorized society” in which most of our citizens have become totally dependent on daily travel by car for their existence. Take away our cars and most of us would be hard pressed to reorganize our lives to provide for the essentials of life – earn an income, and provide food, shelter, and education for ourselves and our families.
A group of distinguished energy experts representing academia, industry, think tanks, and non-profit organizations will meet Wednesday, October 26, 2011 at 10:30 am in front of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to call for “Truth in Energy”regarding the possibility of a near-term oil crisis and long-term oil shortages. Following the news conference, the group will deliver a letter to DOE Secretary Steven Chu calling for urgent action to address this potentially critical threat to America’s economy and national security. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas USA (ASPO-USA, www.aspousa.org) organized the news conference.
