Oil

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020

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A research study challenged the concept that “Peak Oil” will be a supply side phenomenon and predicts that the demand for oil may well peak before 2020 and then fall back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035.

“The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand,” said Peter Hughes of Ricardo. “The predominant role of oil in the global energy mix is facing an ever greater challenge from a number of emerging trends. Over the past few years a near ‘perfect storm’ for oil demand has been forming and gathering strength, created by a preoccupation in many quarters about the availability of future supplies.”

Triple-Digit Oil Prices Block Growth & Investments Before “Petro-collapse”

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Today’s show features two guests who were at last week’s Truth in Energy conference of the US chapter of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, in Washington, DC. Jeff Rubin, is former Chief Economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and the author of Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller. He explains why the price of oil the US media report is $25 too low, why today’s triple-digit oil prices show that the days of low unemployment and 3% economic growth are over, and warns that 30-year US Treasury bonds are not as safe an investment as many people think. Jan Lundberg went from being an oil-industry analyst at Lundberg Survey to a self-described “eco-warrior” fighting petroleum pollution, car culture and sprawl development. He writes at Culture Change and promotes sail transport of freight.

Peak oil and energy – Nov 6

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– Kurt Cobb: Time to Worry: World Oil Production Finishes Six Years of No Growth (NEW)
– Steve Levine’s Weekly Wrap of energy news
– ASPO-USA Conference Report: Friday Notes
– Gail Tverberg: New Dept. of Energy Priority-Setting Analysis Seriously Flawed
– Reuter’s Exclusive: IEA draft outlook sees $212 oil in 2035

CNA military advisory board: cut US oil use 30% to reduce “grave national security risks”

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Even a small interruption of the daily oil supply impacts our nation’s economic engine, but a sustained disruption would alter every aspect of our lives — from food costs and distribution to what or if we eat, to manufacturing goods and services to freedom of movement.

A new CNA analysis finds if America reduces its current rate of oil consumption by 30 percent, and diversifies its fuel sources, the U.S. economy would be insulated from the impact of such disruptions — even in the event of a complete shutdown of a strategic chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, the international passageway for 33 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.

Members contributing to the report include some of our nation’s highest-ranking retired military leaders with 400 years of collective military experience.

Peak oil – Nov 5

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– ASPO-USA Conference Report: Thursday Afternoon Notes
– The six natural resources most drained by our 7 billion people
– Peak Oil – Herausforderung für Sachsen: Bündnis90/Die Grünen präsentieren Studie des Postfossil-Instituts im Landtag

ODAC Newsletter – Nov 4

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In a year when chaos is beginning to feel like the norm, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou’s out of the blue announcement calling a referendum on the latest Euro bailout plan caught even the most jaded observers by surprise. Although it looks as if the idea has now been abandoned, the likelihood of a still more serious financial crisis has surely moved a step closer…

Peak oil perspective

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Aside from excursions here and there, Do the Math represents—in computer terms—a “core dump” of years of accumulated thoughts and analysis on energy, growth, and the largely unappreciated challenges we face on both short and long terms. During this queued process—with much more to come—I have made references to peak oil, but have refrained from a head-on treatment. As important as peak oil has been in motivating my quantitative exploration of life beyond fossil fuels, it seems overdue that I share my thoughts.

Is this group think, or is the U.S. about to be energy-independent?

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One becomes nervous when a consensus begins to form around a Big New Idea — it starts to sound like group think. So what are we to make of the cottage industry developing around the notion that the U.S. not only isn’t facing an impending oil shortage — it is on the cusp of being nearly energy independent, short of a margin of barrels that will be imported from friendly Canada and Mexico?