Fossil Fuels

Rising commodity prices and extreme weather events threaten global stability

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It’s not surprising then that food and energy experts are beginning to warn that 2011 could be the year of living dangerously — and so could 2012, 2013, and on into the future. Add to the soaring cost of the grains that keep so many impoverished people alive a comparable rise in oil prices — again nearing levels not seen since the peak months of 2008 — and you can already hear the first rumblings about the tenuous economic recovery being in danger of imminent collapse. Think of those rising energy prices as adding further fuel to global discontent.

Is the global economy approaching an inflection point?

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During a presentation last week a questioner asked me what I thought about predictions that gasoline prices would reach $5 a gallon this summer. I offered this critique. I said that the oil prices implied by $5-a-gallon gas could probably not be attained in such a weak global economy. And, something short of that price would probably send the economy into a tailspin.

ODAC Newsletter – Jan 21

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BP increased its exposure to the ‘wild east’ this week through a new joint venture with the state-owned Russian oil giant Rosneft. Given the rocky history of its existing joint venture, TNK-BP, the deal illustrates the risks BP has been forced to take to gain access to meaningful oil resources…

If Britain starts fuel rationing, could US be next?

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Facing up to imminent peak oil and runaway climate change, the UK could start rationing fuel within ten years. Rationing sounds scary. But it’s much fairer than the alternative, which is to let high prices determine who drives and who doesn’t. And the Brits’ innovative plan for Tradable Energy Quotas would reward energy conservation while softening the blow of higher costs. Meanwhile, the US continues to be in denial about both climate and energy depletion. Is there any way this British plan could come to Washington?

The onset of catabolic collapse

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The latest round of price spikes in food crops and petroleum sparked a corresponding round of predictions insisting that collapse can be expected shortly. Behind these claims is a foreshortening of historical perception that makes short term variations seem more important than the broader and slower patterns that drive them. Still, there’s one detail these claims get right; it’s now possible, with a fair degree of certainty, to put a specific date to the beginning of America’s catabolic collapse; the Archdruid explains.

Deep thought – Jan 20

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-The Ultimate Oxymoron: Industrial Civilization And Mental Health
– Nicole Foss: We Need Freedom of Action To Confront Peak Oil (video)
– La Niña as Black Swan – Energy, Food Prices, and Chinese Economy Among Likely Casualites
– The Guardian: The population explosion
– Jerome a Paris: Neo-feudalism and neo-nihilism

Energy security

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So what should we do? We must be explicit about why we want good domestic climate and energy policy. Let’s say that it is needed to achieve peace and stability. Let’s say that climate change and competition for dwindling energy reserves are both causes of instability and violence. We should make it clear that there the other causes of instability and violence – like nuclear proliferation and inequality – need to be dealt with too. Finally let’s be very clear that our vision for renewables and good domestic climate policy is totally inconsistent with the dominant approach to security.

The peak oil crisis: it’s not adding up!

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Last week, three official forecasters the IEA in Paris, the EIA in Washington, and the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, released new forecasts of global oil prices and the availability during the next two years. This may be a critical time for global oil production which is hardly growing at all; and consumption in some parts of the world has been increasing rapidly.

TEQs Tradable energy quotas: A policy framework for peak oil and climate change

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A report launched today by the Lean Economy Connection, commissioned by the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, calls for a nationwide system for ensuring fair and equal access to fuel as energy scarcities develop. The report, entitled Tradable Energy Quotas, sets out a detailed proposal for a scheme which would ensure fair and equal entitlements to fuel and energy under conditions of scarcity, while also guaranteeing that the government meets its commitment to an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.

Commentary: On not jumping the gun

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I’m sure we all have our own pet scenarios, and many experts have excellent and credible reasons for believing one of those is more likely than others. I would argue that as a movement, however, peak-oil activists do better to focus on the common outcomes of high, low or fluctuating oil prices, than to try to predict which path energy prices will take. The end-results matter most.

Book review: Paolo Bacigalupi’s “The Windup Girl”

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It’s not the apocalypse. And it’s certainly not the Death Star or the planet Tatooine. But The Windup Girl is a compelling vision of our industrial world as it could be in a low-energy future. Paolo Bacigalupi’s techno-political thriller imagines how, in the time after peak oil and economic collapse, global trade could return via airships and GMOs.