Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Rising food prices leading to riots, protests, and revolts, mounting oil prices, mammoth worldwide unemployment, and a collapsed recovery — it looks like the perfect set of preconditions for a global tsunami of instability and turmoil. Events in Algeria and Tunisia give us just an inkling of what this maelstrom might look like, but where and how it will next erupt, and in what form, is anyone’s guess.
Blackout offers scholars and activists an overview of projections on future coal production and their complexities, but social movements will need to look elsewhere for what is to be done about the historical burden of our coal question.
[Excerpts]
-IEA doubles global gas reserves estimates
-Shareholders challenge gas companies on fracking
-Gasland: the review
-UK government rejects calls for shale gas moratorium
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-Iran’s nuclear program
-China
-Unrest in the Arab World
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
It’s not surprising then that food and energy experts are beginning to warn that 2011 could be the year of living dangerously — and so could 2012, 2013, and on into the future. Add to the soaring cost of the grains that keep so many impoverished people alive a comparable rise in oil prices — again nearing levels not seen since the peak months of 2008 — and you can already hear the first rumblings about the tenuous economic recovery being in danger of imminent collapse. Think of those rising energy prices as adding further fuel to global discontent.
During a presentation last week a questioner asked me what I thought about predictions that gasoline prices would reach $5 a gallon this summer. I offered this critique. I said that the oil prices implied by $5-a-gallon gas could probably not be attained in such a weak global economy. And, something short of that price would probably send the economy into a tailspin.
BP increased its exposure to the ‘wild east’ this week through a new joint venture with the state-owned Russian oil giant Rosneft. Given the rocky history of its existing joint venture, TNK-BP, the deal illustrates the risks BP has been forced to take to gain access to meaningful oil resources…
Facing up to imminent peak oil and runaway climate change, the UK could start rationing fuel within ten years. Rationing sounds scary. But it’s much fairer than the alternative, which is to let high prices determine who drives and who doesn’t. And the Brits’ innovative plan for Tradable Energy Quotas would reward energy conservation while softening the blow of higher costs. Meanwhile, the US continues to be in denial about both climate and energy depletion. Is there any way this British plan could come to Washington?
The latest round of price spikes in food crops and petroleum sparked a corresponding round of predictions insisting that collapse can be expected shortly. Behind these claims is a foreshortening of historical perception that makes short term variations seem more important than the broader and slower patterns that drive them. Still, there’s one detail these claims get right; it’s now possible, with a fair degree of certainty, to put a specific date to the beginning of America’s catabolic collapse; the Archdruid explains.
A midweek roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
-IEA calls for increased OPEC output
-The Ultimate Oxymoron: Industrial Civilization And Mental Health
– Nicole Foss: We Need Freedom of Action To Confront Peak Oil (video)
– La Niña as Black Swan – Energy, Food Prices, and Chinese Economy Among Likely Casualites
– The Guardian: The population explosion
– Jerome a Paris: Neo-feudalism and neo-nihilism
So what should we do? We must be explicit about why we want good domestic climate and energy policy. Let’s say that it is needed to achieve peace and stability. Let’s say that climate change and competition for dwindling energy reserves are both causes of instability and violence. We should make it clear that there the other causes of instability and violence – like nuclear proliferation and inequality – need to be dealt with too. Finally let’s be very clear that our vision for renewables and good domestic climate policy is totally inconsistent with the dominant approach to security.
