Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
As the European Central Bank prepares to raise interest rates to prevent inflation, the bank cites rising commodity prices, particularly oil prices, as a sign of that inflation. What the bank and other market participants don’t seem to understand is that high commodity prices and, in particular, high oil prices are deflationary.
– Obama Confronts Oil-Policy Critics
– “We Want More Millionaires In America”: With Gas Prices Soaring, Lawmakers Call For President Obama To Stop Picking On Oil Industry
– Demanding Cheaper Oil is Disastrous
– Q & A with geologist Sally Odland
– Should West Help Oil States Kick the Oil Habit Too?
It’s been nearly six months since BP Plc.’s runaway oil well in the Gulf of Mexico, which caused the largest unintentional offshore spill on record, was finally deemed “effectively dead.” And those six months have brought almost as many books on the disaster. Cavnar’s book has a particular ring of authenticity, and I suspect that’s because he’s the only one of the above authors to have spent a career in the oil and gas drilling business.
NASA climatologist James Hansen’s book, just out in paperback, is a fascinating look at his crusade to get America a rational climate policy before it’s too late. He wants to levy a carbon tax, entirely phase out coal and leave unconventional fossil fuels in the ground. But he also likes nuclear power. Reactor meltdown on Hansen Island?
Oil prices were buffeted this week by escalating violence in Libya and fear of further disruption in the Middle East on the one hand, and a new debt crisis in the Eurozone threatening further economic turmoil on the other. In Libya this week the Gaddafi regime has launched a full scale military offensive against the rebels and appeared on Thursday to be gaining the upper hand.
There’s a presumption out there that things look tough in the Middle East, but that soon enough — maybe by summer — they will sort themselves out, and becalm the volatile prices of oil and gasoline. Not so, says veteran oil analyst Edward Morse, a student of history who correctly called the 2008 oil bubble while everyone else was still throwing money into the pot. “This is not a one-off disruption,” Morse says. Instead, we’re in a new age of geopolitical risk that threatens to disrupt the region for a decade or even longer.
In addition to water, people need food for their very existence. Thus food is also essential to economic growth.
A midweek roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
With instability in the Middle East driving oil prices higher, huge cracks are widening in the global economy. In an effort to broaden the conversation about Middle East unrest and its impacts on oil prices and economies, the Post Carbon Institute offers six informed perspectives on what to expect in the days, weeks and months ahead. Individuals, businesses and policy makers are made aware of the speed with which seemingly incremental price gains can topple global dominoes.
– Don’t sweat the oil speculators
– Saudi Arabia protests could be calamitous for oil market
– FT: Oil markets brace for Saudi ‘rage’ as global spare capacity wears thin
– The secret group setting the price of oil: Us (energy traders)
– Tverberg: If Oil Supply Declines Quickly, How do We Deal with It?
– Oil Roller Coaster Gets Wilder (PO with a local slant)
As oil prices rise, heating our homes with wood becomes more attractive. Steven Hamburg is the Chief Scientist of the Environmental Defense Fund, and he co-authored a recent report on the potential of northeastern forests to meet our energy need. Tom Whipple writes the weekly Peak Oil Review, and his latest edition says, “Collapse would not be too strong a term to apply to the global economy should Saudi oil production of 9 million b/d be halted or severely restricted by domestic unrest.” We talk to him about what he sees that indicates Saudi production may become shut in, and why that’s so important.
– Saudi Arabia is losing its fear
– Why Saudi Arabia is ripe for revolution.
– The Muslim Brothers In Egypt’s ‘Orderly Transition’
