Fossil Fuels

6 energy experts address the economic impact of Middle East unrest

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With instability in the Middle East driving oil prices higher, huge cracks are widening in the global economy. In an effort to broaden the conversation about Middle East unrest and its impacts on oil prices and economies, the Post Carbon Institute offers six informed perspectives on what to expect in the days, weeks and months ahead. Individuals, businesses and policy makers are made aware of the speed with which seemingly incremental price gains can topple global dominoes.

Oil prices – March 10

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– Don’t sweat the oil speculators
– Saudi Arabia protests could be calamitous for oil market
– FT: Oil markets brace for Saudi ‘rage’ as global spare capacity wears thin
– The secret group setting the price of oil: Us (energy traders)
– Tverberg: If Oil Supply Declines Quickly, How do We Deal with It?
– Oil Roller Coaster Gets Wilder (PO with a local slant)

How much energy can our forests provide? & The possibilities and consequences of large-scale oil cutoffs

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As oil prices rise, heating our homes with wood becomes more attractive. Steven Hamburg is the Chief Scientist of the Environmental Defense Fund, and he co-authored a recent report on the potential of northeastern forests to meet our energy need. Tom Whipple writes the weekly Peak Oil Review, and his latest edition says, “Collapse would not be too strong a term to apply to the global economy should Saudi oil production of 9 million b/d be halted or severely restricted by domestic unrest.” We talk to him about what he sees that indicates Saudi production may become shut in, and why that’s so important.

Why cheap energy is a bad thing

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Petroleum geophysicist and author Jean Laherrère explains that we are in the current energy crisis not only because fuel is running out, but because its cost is too cheap. Laherrère, a former TOTAL oil company employee, used his insider knowledge to co-author a game-changing 1998 article in Scientific American, “The End of Cheap Oil,” which studied oil depletion based on the most accurate database of the world’s oilfields at the time.

Talking about oil — Complacency, panic and ignorance

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Thirty-four years have come and gone since Energy Secretary James Schlesinger described the American approach to oil supply problems. “We have only two modes—complacency and panic.” Nothing has changed. As popular revolt spread from Egypt into Libya, panic smoothly replaced complacency in the markets and the overwrought minds of the American people. Apparently, since Egypt blew up first, and Libya, which is west of Egypt, blew up next, it has been deemed logical to conclude that Algeria, which is west of Libya, will be the next domino to fall.

What punctured the North-African balloon? Crude oil and social unrest

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A society is not as simple as a balloon but it can easily explode in revolutions, collapse, breakdowns, civil wars and all sort of rapid and unpredictable changes. Societies, it seems, are fragile, at least in terms of the stability of their governments. This behavior looks normal to us because we have seen it happening many times. But, just as for balloons, it is difficult to explain exactly why societies “explode.”

Oman’s unrest may be a domino, not just to suppliers, but also to customers

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There are reports that the unrest in the Middle East has spread to the Sultanate of Oman. While at the moment there have been only one or perhaps two deaths, small in number relative to the larger number of fatalities in countries like Libya, such a milepost, nevertheless, is sadly likely to indicate that the situation will get much worse. … Oman is not a member of OPEC, but contains the largest oil reserves of any country outside that group in the Middle East.