Energy Policy

Peak oil – Nov 9

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– ASPO-USA Conference Takeaways
– IEA economist Fatih Birol: ‘We have to leave oil before it leaves us’ (interview)
– New book by Colin Campbell: Peak Oil Personalities
– Peak Cheese: the bleak science of cheese depletion

Peak oil: the five most common misconceptions

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As far as peak oil goes, most of us can agree that just as it did in the U.S. in 1970, global oil production will inevitably decline. The points of contention are the timing, the steepness of the decline, the impact on the global economy, and the ability of other energy sources to fill the supply gap. Some believe it will be a non-event, and some people believe it will be catastrophic.

I still believe in the Peak Lite scenario; in fact I think that view has been validated. I also believe that my view on the Long Recession is supported by the state of the economy as well as the continued strength in oil prices. As far as the consequences of peak oil, I believe that what we are seeing now with respect to the economy is a prelude to what we will see for the next few years

Triple-Digit Oil Prices Block Growth & Investments Before “Petro-collapse”

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Today’s show features two guests who were at last week’s Truth in Energy conference of the US chapter of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, in Washington, DC. Jeff Rubin, is former Chief Economist at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and the author of Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller. He explains why the price of oil the US media report is $25 too low, why today’s triple-digit oil prices show that the days of low unemployment and 3% economic growth are over, and warns that 30-year US Treasury bonds are not as safe an investment as many people think. Jan Lundberg went from being an oil-industry analyst at Lundberg Survey to a self-described “eco-warrior” fighting petroleum pollution, car culture and sprawl development. He writes at Culture Change and promotes sail transport of freight.

CNA military advisory board: cut US oil use 30% to reduce “grave national security risks”

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Even a small interruption of the daily oil supply impacts our nation’s economic engine, but a sustained disruption would alter every aspect of our lives — from food costs and distribution to what or if we eat, to manufacturing goods and services to freedom of movement.

A new CNA analysis finds if America reduces its current rate of oil consumption by 30 percent, and diversifies its fuel sources, the U.S. economy would be insulated from the impact of such disruptions — even in the event of a complete shutdown of a strategic chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, the international passageway for 33 percent of the world’s seaborne oil shipments.

Members contributing to the report include some of our nation’s highest-ranking retired military leaders with 400 years of collective military experience.