Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
The oil supply challenge is often summarized in terms of the production volume equivalent of Saudi-Arabia’s that needs to be replaced. This popular metric is based on in-depth studies of global decline rates that show a decline range between 4.5 and 6 percent over the current 73 million barrels of crude oil produced per day.
The world is heading for a renewed oil crunch as soon as 2013 due to shrinking production capacity and growing demand in the emerging markets, according to reports from two investment banks. Both BofA Merril Lynch and Barclays Capital conclude non OPEC production is close to peak, meaning a shift back to reliance on OPEC for new capacity…
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Dr. Larry Hughes’ recent study entitled “Eastern Canadian crude oil supply and its implications for regional energy security” was recently published in Energy Policy (Jan. 2010, 8 pgs)…Hughes’ analysis of the drop in export capacity of key “safe suppliers” fits nicely with the work of Jeff Brown, Robert Hirsch, Jeff Rubin, and Paul Stevens, all of whom have addressed the impending threat of oil export decline. Hughes’ analysis appears to be unique insofar as he has applied the export decline syndrome to the energy security of a specific import-dependent region.
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A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Prices and production
-The Iranian standoff
-Nuclear power for the U.S.
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
-Environmental Advocates Are Cooling on Obama
-Is the Tea Party the Alternative Energy Party?
-Asia-Produced Ozone Making its Way to U.S., Study Finds
-Only 21% Say U.S. Government Has Consent of the Governed
-Unprepared and unplugged: Joe Stack and likely coming attractions
Even for staunch proponents of U.S. biofuel policy, it is hard to argue that the current subsidy on grain ethanol serves the purpose it was designed to serve. With ethanol mandates now in place in the form of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), there is a mechanism – with penalties for non-compliance – to ensure that gasoline blenders use the mandated amount of ethanol. Maintaining a subsidy on top of a mandate would be like paying people to obey the speed limit.
It’s easy to envision great and heroic personal sacrifice for a cause. Many of us think of think of ourselves as leaders in and members of a resilience building army. But the moment we have to step up and truly embody the mission, a lifetime of conditioning dulls our charge.
The mood amongst oil company executives meeting in London this week for the Petroleum Week conference was largely bullish, with global oil demand expected to recover this year as the world economy crawls out of recession. But the production side of the equation is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive…
Bill Gates is right that we need more funding, support, and attention applied to energy technology. But if we truly seek to fashion a sustainable future, we need just as much applied to laws, regulations, infrastructure, economics, behaviors, and values. We need to innovate a new way of being in the world, not just new tools.
What is likely the best current thinking on the peak oil situation concludes that world oil production will stop growing at the end of this year; will just balance annual global depletion of 4 million b/d for the next four years or so; and then enter into irreversible decline.
