Jonathan Callahan

2011 ASPO-USA Conference: Day 1

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I recently attended the ASPO-USA annual conference in Washington, DC. Overall, I found the presentations and discussion to be very engaging. The vibe this year had much less of a doomsday feel than last year and the topic of how best to tell an engaging Peak Oil story came up often. In the notes below I attempt to recap the sessions I attended with the caveat that these notes reflect primarily what I paid attention to. No attempt is made to be complete or unbiased in my coverage of the conference. I apologize in advance for any omissions or misrepresentations. In the next few weeks ASPO should make videos of the presentations available on aspo.tv.

Fear and the three-day food supply

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One of the scary factoids in circulation these days is the revelation that grocery stores hold only a three- or four-day supply of food. We’re only a few days from starvation, goes the frightening story, and we’re liable one day to find our supermarket shelves empty and the populace in panic. To accept this forecast uncritically, though, means ignoring how complex systems work. Here’s why storing more food in cities is not the right strategy for food security.

Peak oil: the five most common misconceptions

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As far as peak oil goes, most of us can agree that just as it did in the U.S. in 1970, global oil production will inevitably decline. The points of contention are the timing, the steepness of the decline, the impact on the global economy, and the ability of other energy sources to fill the supply gap. Some believe it will be a non-event, and some people believe it will be catastrophic.

I still believe in the Peak Lite scenario; in fact I think that view has been validated. I also believe that my view on the Long Recession is supported by the state of the economy as well as the continued strength in oil prices. As far as the consequences of peak oil, I believe that what we are seeing now with respect to the economy is a prelude to what we will see for the next few years

Will the “economic price” limit oil production?

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In a widely-circulated article in September 2011, Chris Skrebowski, who runs a peak oil consulting firm and was editor of the Petroleum Review for eleven years until 2008, argued that there are two forms of oil peak. One is, or will be, caused directly by depletion – the oil is no longer in the ground in sufficient quantities for producers to be able to maintain production. The other is the economic oil peak, which he says is the “price at which oil becomes unaffordable to consume and therefore to produce.” He says that oil becomes unaffordable when the “cost of the supply exceeds the price economies can pay without destroying growth at a given point in time.” In other words, the unaffordable limit is passed when extra cost of the oil after a price increase captures all, or more, of the increase in income that the growth process seemed likely to deliver.

Open letter to the Occupy movement: why we need agreements

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A mask and a lack of clear expectations create a perfect opening for those who do not have the best interests of the movement at heart, for agents and provocateurs who can never be held to account. As well, the fear of provocateurs itself sows suspicion and undercuts our ability to openly organize and grow.

A framework of strategic nonviolent direct action makes it easy to reject provocation. We know what we’ve agreed to—and anyone urging other courses of action can be reminded of those agreements or rejected. We hold one another accountable not by force or control, ours or the systems, but by the power of our united opinion and our willingness to stand behind, speak for, and act to defend our agreements.

The Metamovement’s message: “We’re not buying it any more”

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Instead, what is needed is for the 99% to walk away from the current unsustainable, rapacious, soul-destroying and Earth-destroying systems the 1% have so effectively exploited to their own advantage — the political, economic, work, media, education, health, and technology systems on which we are all, today, utterly dependent — and build a new culture with new systems and infrastructure, bottom-up, egalitarian, community-based, focused on the welfare and well-being of all, without the 1%’s help or the need for their support.

Saturday Oil Report — November 5, 2011

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More evidence for the disconnect between Nymex (WTI) and Brent prices surfaced this week. Although the spread has narrowed, Nymex rose to $94.16/barrel, almost seven dollars more than it was two weeks ago in my as Saturday report. Brent came in at $112.55, only a few dollars higher than it was on October 22. The alarm level remains the same.

Ricardo study suggests global oil demand may peak before 2020

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A research study challenged the concept that “Peak Oil” will be a supply side phenomenon and predicts that the demand for oil may well peak before 2020 and then fall back to levels significantly below 2010 demand by 2035.

“The world is nearing a paradigm shift in oil demand,” said Peter Hughes of Ricardo. “The predominant role of oil in the global energy mix is facing an ever greater challenge from a number of emerging trends. Over the past few years a near ‘perfect storm’ for oil demand has been forming and gathering strength, created by a preoccupation in many quarters about the availability of future supplies.”

Occupy Main Street

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Flash forward to October 2011. Those ruminations and years of activism – and the rumblings getting louder everywhere – are finally surfacing in the public square. We’re getting it! Finally and gloriously and intelligently and courageously. The occupations have been going on long enough that good suggestions are arising for the direction of this movement. Get political. Sustain dialogue. Demonstrate democracy in action. No matter what one’s prescription though, the marvel is that the occupation continues and is a school of democracy itself, a sustained bonding among people who normally have nothing to do with one another, who keep their heads down in tunnels of adaptation, still believing in the American Dream.