What punctured the North-African balloon? Crude oil and social unrest

A society is not as simple as a balloon but it can easily explode in revolutions, collapse, breakdowns, civil wars and all sort of rapid and unpredictable changes. Societies, it seems, are fragile, at least in terms of the stability of their governments. This behavior looks normal to us because we have seen it happening many times. But, just as for balloons, it is difficult to explain exactly why societies “explode.”

Dissident economists on the warpath

As an academic economist I find I am living in interesting times. Yes, really. The profession is in crisis, and much blame is being laid at the door of those who teach politicians how the economy works, and who engage in research to support this teaching. The fact that the financial crisis was predicted only by dissident economists, and the lamentable failure of mainstream economists to explain what has happened, much less provide solutions, has led to severe criticism.

Support a hero

I’m writing you today about Tim de Christopher. For you that don’t know his name, here’s a short story: In its last days, the Bush administration was selling off 77 parcels of federal land totaling 150,000 acres for drilling, a last round of favors to the oil and gas industry. The leases were on wilderness areas, including some areas next to national parks. Business as usual. Then a student at the University of Utah named Tim de Christopher showed up.

Good complexity, bad complexity

Why then don’t complex agricultural societies, or the even more complex civilizations that they sometimes evolve into, rely on ecological complexity to solve problems? Because by their very nature they are committed to ecological simplicity. Their size, population density and social complexity are in most places the result of grain monocultures.