Oil

The US Energy Information Administration’s faulty peak oil analysis

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The United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) remains optimistic about the future of global oil supply and maintains that global peak oil will not likely occur before 2030. How does the EIA remain optimistic given the growing trend throughout the world towards energy pessimism? This post will explain the methodology that underlies the EIA’s optimistic oil supply vision, and will point out two important flaws in this methodology that call their results into question. … a corrected application of EIA’s approach agrees well with many reports suggesting the likelihood of a near-term or historical peak in global conventional oil.

Charles Hugh Smith: Why local enterprise is the solution

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A growing number of individuals believe our economic and societal status quo is defined by unsustainable addiction to cheap oil and ever increasing debt. With that viewpoint, it’s hard not to see a hard takedown of our national standard of living in the future. Even harder to answer is: what do you do about it?

Oil limits, recession, and bumping against the growth ceiling

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The issues we are confronted with today seem to be a subset of the issues foretold in the book Limits to Growth back in 1972. At some point, the economy cannot continue to grow as rapidly as it did in the past. It appears to me that the most immediate limit we are hitting today is inadequate low-priced oil, but there are other limits lurking not far away–inadequate fresh water and excessive pollution, for example. When the economy cannot grow as fast, or actually starts declining, recession sets in…This issue is a difficult one to talk about, because there really is no good solution.

Straight Talk About Your Future

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This is a first for us at Post Carbon Institute/Energy Bulletin: an online ‘creative’ fundraising campaign. We want to create a presentation deck for all the HUNDREDS of people who have asked us over the years for our slides. But rather than just dump our slides on people, we want to develop a presentation deck and story that is easy to present and personally resonant. Richard has written a fantastic script that presents our oil journey in a truly accessible way, we are now looking to turn this into something really user friendly and inspiring to present. If we’re able to raise the funds, not only will we create the slideshow but will train volunteers so that they can deliver it in their own communities.

The most dangerous machine ever built

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I could never understand why activists picked on the personal automobile so much. Sure, people die in accidents. The car also uses a lot of oil and spews a lot of pollution. But so do planes, ships and lots of other machines. And won’t gasoline cars soon be replaced by cleaner hybrids or even 100% clean electric vehicles? Now, after reading “Stop Signs,” I can see the problem — as the main gateway drug to excessive consumption of everything from suburban homes and appliances to self-storage, more than anything else, the auto literally drives climate change and peak oil.

Where would we be today, without the fall of the Soviet Union?

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Back in the 1960s and 1970s, the country that was the “big growth story” was the Soviet Union. Its oil consumption grew by leaps and bounds. Its space program grew; its military program grew; and it became much more industrialized. But then something happened to stop the amazing growth story. The Soviet Union became the Former Soviet Union (FSU) in late 1991, and even before that, oil production and consumption slowed. It is not the purpose of this article to analyze precisely what happened, but it appears that at least part of the problem was a drop in the price of oil, starting about 1981…

Jevons’ coal question: Why the UK Coal Peak wasn’t as bad as expected

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In his book The Coal Question from 1865 William Stanley Jevons examined for how long the United Kingdom could continue to fuel its economy based on cheap supplies of coal. At the time the UK consumed about 93 million tons of coal providing nearly all of its energy supply. His estimate was that within a maximum of a hundred years, or perhaps even within one or two generations, production would be in retreat due to an increase in the cost of mining which would, in Jevons’ words, “Injure the commercial and manufacturing supremacy of England.”

In this post I’ll look back at history to show that Jevons correctly foresaw the fate of the British coal industry. In Britain a peak in production occurred around 1913 caused by increasing coal mining costs, lack of technological innovation, rising competition from abroad, a number of political decisions disadvantaging coal as a fuel source, declining profits, and a slump in British economic growth coinciding with World War I.

Renewable energy zealots must understand ‘Net Energy’

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Was I surprised that last issue’s column, Can Renewables Outshine Fossil Fuels?, elicited a strong reaction, with written responses of support and derision? Not at all. It’s an issue that continues to divide the environmental community, and one which keeps us from moving forward as quickly as possible to conserve resources and relocalize as an era of cheap, concentrated, easy-to-get energy comes to an end.

Review of Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk (U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 2011)

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The U.S. Chamber of Commerce recently released its Index of U.S. Energy Security Risk: Assessing America’s Vulnerabilities in a Global Energy Market, 2011 Edition (80 pgs). This is an update of last year’s inaugural edition and is published by the Chamber’s Institute for 21st Century Energy, headed by Karen Harbert.