Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
At the EIA’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) presentation this May the issue of future oil exports from OPEC nations came up, and in an interesting way. Readers may be familiar with the phenomenon of declining net exports, from major oil producing nations, as a result of internal demand from growing, domestic populations.
A good case can now be made that the year 2007, when this book originally appeared, was indeed the year, if not of “peak everything,” then at least of “peak many things.” Since then we have begun a scary descent from the giddy heights of consumption achieved in the early years of this century.
In the days following Simmon’s death some 400 obituaries appeared on the web, on television broadcasts and in hard copy publications around the world. Some of these were written by people and organizations who understand the threat of peaking world oil supplies and praised Matt for his leadership in analyzing and publicizing the issue. Others were written by hostile skeptics who sought to play down his significance or focused on those instances in his voluminous pronouncements where he was wrong.
In this post I present an analysis of how OPEC oil supplies have responded to changes in crude oil prices during the last 10 years. My objective was to estimate OPEC’s probable marketable crude oil capacities as of May 2010, based on responses of OPEC oil supplies to price changes.
This is a German translation of the essay Beyond the Limits to Growth by Richard Heinberg which will appear in the forthcoming Post Carbon Reader. Im Jahre 1972 erkundete das inzwischen klassische Buch “Grenzen des Wachstums” die Konsequenzen des exponentiellen Wachstums von Bevölkerung, Industrialisierung, Umweltverschmutzung und Ressourcenverbrauch.# Dieses Buch, bis heute unangetastet der Bestseller unter den Umweltbüchern, berichtete über die ersten Versuche, Computer zur Modellierung der Trends bei den Interaktionen von Ressourcen, Verbrauch und Bevölkerung zu nutzen.
As a college junior I frequented a website (www.dieoff.org) where prognosticators observed that with accelerating rates of environmental destruction, overpopulation and fossil fuel depletion, modern civilization was on the verge of collapse. I kept my new-found realization that life as we knew it was coming an end to myself, for fear of being labeled a “Cassandra.” Only that’s exactly what I would soon become.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is forecasting world oil demand will set a new record next year when is smashes through 2008’s pre-recession high – and warning that the “era of cheap oil is over.” According to the IEA’s latest Oil Market Report, published August 11, global demand will reach 86.6 million barrels per day in 2010, and then 87.9 million barrels per day in 2011, assuming a continuing global economic recovery. This means demand is set to pass the all-time high of 86.9 million barrels per day established in 2008 before the global economic downturn.
This might be an opportune time to make a disclosure: I am a BP shareholder. Admittedly, I’ve never attended the company’s annual meeting, and if I did, I would have very little weight to throw around.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-China cooling
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
Liberal journalists, pale greens and others are trivializing the BP/Deepwater oil spill and distracting attention from the social roots of environmental destruction. It’s time to dump the myth of “consumer sovereignty.”
-Beyond BP: Michael Klare on US Energy Policy
-Scientists Allege Federal Gov’t Tried to Muffle Plume Findings
-Oil sands toxins growing rapidly
-The Triumph of the Amateur: Remembering Matt Simmons
-Peak oil is the villain governments need
-High Oil Prices: Quantification of direct and indirect impacts for the EU)
Below are excerpts from two recently released reports on transport. The first, Towards a Zero Carbon Vision for UK Transport, from a UK based team offers a pathway to a reduced carbon scenario for the UK transport sector based on a variety of strategies already in place in Europe. The second report has been produced for the American Public Transportation Association and addresses the links between public health and public transport.
