The CIA Accurately Predicted How Long World Oil Supplies Would Last—in 1978
In 1978, an analyst for the Rand Corporation produced a report for the CIA predicting how long oil supplies would last–and got it exactly right.
Oil
ODAC Newsletter – May 27
There was a step forward this week for recognition of peak oil in the UK political agenda. Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has agreed that the Department for Energy and Climate Change and ITPOES (UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security) should work more closely together on peak-oil threat assessment and contingency planning.
Peak oil and the fall of the Soviet Union: lessons on the 20th anniversary of the collapse
The causes of the fall of the Soviet Union are thought to be inefficiency and the Soviet response to the Reagan Administration’s military buildup of the early 1980s. However, a more plausible explanation is the decline in Soviet oil production caused by peak oil. This gives the world an example of a modern economy confronted by peak oil and what lessons we can learn from it.
ENERGY: Peak Oil and the Great Recession
The year 2008 will be remembered as a major turning point in industrial history, for it was the first year when the world got a taste of the unpredictable price spikes that come from inadequate oil supplies.
Why Keystone pipeline will weaken the US
In the oil business few endeavors promise more bluster than a pipeline. And TransCanada’s grandiose and troubled proposal to ship 1.1 million barrels of Canadian bitumen to the U.S. Gulf coast ably illustrates a good batch of petroleum hubris.
Energy – May 26
– British Government Faces Up To Peak Oil
– Fukushima nuclear plant is leaking like a sieve
– U.S. Suit Sees Manipulation of Oil Trades
– China’s Utilities Cut Energy Production, Defying Beijing
– WikiLeaks Documents Hint of Slick Plans for Arctic Oil
– Danish warship sails into Greenpeace Arctic oil protest
Peak oil notes – May 26
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
UK Government to work with business on plans to tackle peak oil threat
Business leaders today welcomed a commitment by the Government to work with the private sector on contingency plans to protect the UK and its economy from the growing risk of rising oil prices. It follows a meeting between Chris Huhne, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, and representatives from the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES). During the meeting, the Secretary of State agreed that the Department for Energy and Climate Change and ITPOES should work more closely together on peak-oil threat assessment and contingency planning.
Commentary: ASPO-USA asks: “What are we missing?” – Part 1
There are so many challenges facing us as a result of Peak Oil and related issues that it is easy to miss something important. ASPO-USA asked more than 50 leaders on Peak Oil to share what they felt was the most critical issue we’ve all been missing, the thing every one of us should be talking about – but aren’t. The answers were eye-opening, and have started a discussion that continues.
Peak oil review – May 23
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-Energy shortages spreading
-The IEA speaks out
-Washington
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
Where elites fail
Elites in both corporations and government are often quite good at running systems they create, and bad at looking beyond these systems at larger social effects.
The case for a disorderly energy descent
The energy descent from peak oil production imposes decades of contraction in the global economy. An orderly contraction, particularly in the US, is not likely for a number of reasons. The decline of the oil civilization is a phenomenon and spectacle of such complexity that understanding it requires a systems perspective. This summary of the case for a disorderly contraction and its core drivers demonstrates the capacity of systems tools to show the interlocking feedback structure that shapes how this momentous change plays out over time.
