Geopolitics & Military

Commentary: 2012 Predictions

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Last year ASPO-USA brought together a host of leading thinkers and their predictions for what to expect in 2011. While not all the predictions were on target, last year’s thinkers and leaders on energy issues were remarkably prescient, accurately anticipating among other things Arab Spring, the flow of energy prices, the re-emergent world food crisis, and the next step in the Transition movement. While foreseeing the future is a delicate exercise, there are real trends that are evident to eyes prepared to see. Here are their thoughts about the coming year. A Hopeful New Year to all from ASPO-USA!

The world Left after 2011

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The second basic debate that consumes the world left is that between what I call “developmentalism” and what may be called the priority of civilizational change. We can observe this debate in many parts of the world. One sees it in Latin America in the ongoing and quite angry debates between left governments and movements of indigenous peoples – for example, in Bolivia, in Ecuador, in Venezuela. One sees it in North America and in Europe in debates between environmentalists/Greens and the trade-unions which give priority to retaining and expanding available employment.

The world it is a-changing – Dec 30

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– Which (Mid East) tyrant will fall next?
– Juan Cole: 2011 Revolutions and the End of Republican Monarchy in the Arab world
– Guardian: US military retains global reach, but role as world leader is gradually ending
– Immanuel Wallerstein: The United States versus Everybody
– Noam Chomsky: The Decline Of America (but no competitiors in sight)

In with the new: part III of “As economic growth fails, how do we live?”

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In this third and final article in this series, we will discuss seven new ways of living which we can adopt as economic growth fails. They are not revolutionary (revolutions never achieve their utopian visions because of something called “human nature”). Rather, they may allow us to “muddle through” the best we can right now with what we already know how to do. We will do these things because they will work — and we certainly need to stop doing things that don’t work, and find new ways that will work.

As economic growth fails, how do we live? Part II: Out with the old

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We cannot “set things right” in the sense of restoring things to the way they once were, but we must begin now to adapt to the new realities if we are to reduce suffering and continue an advanced culture. Today’s article, “Out With the Old”, discusses ending seven unsustainable practices.

World – Dec 22

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– Egyptian Military Advisor: Protesters Should “Be Thrown Into Hitler’s Ovens”
– Krugman: Will China Break?
– China’s epic hangover begins
– China’s top paper praises settlement of village dispute
– Greek woes drive up suicide rate to highest in Europe
– Fragments of a Defunct State (haves vs have-nots in Russia)

Oil and geopolitics: a turbulent year, and no end in sight

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Kazakhstan is moving fast to pacify its restive west as a new video circulates in which police shoot and beat retreating oil workers protesting labor conditions. Two reasons: With parliamentary elections three weeks away, President Nursultan Nazarbayev (pictured above) wants to stamp out any political narrative conflicting with his long-time assertion of keeping Kazakhstan stable. Abroad, the jittery global oil market is already starting to factor in a possible disruption of Kazakhstan’s 1.5 million barrels a day of oil exports

Massacre of oil workers in Kazakhstan

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– NYT: Defying Police Crackdown, Kazakh Protests Continue
– The Massacre Everyone Ignored: Up To 70 Striking Oil Workers Killed In Kazakhstan By US-Supported Dictator
– Kazakhstan: Riots Not Prelude to Arab Spring
– Seeing Revolution Everywhere: the ‘Kazakhstan Spring’ That Isn’t