Fossil Fuels

The US crude production peak is not symmetrical

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People that worry about the peaking of global oil supplies often use symmetrical curves as simple models for how production will peak and then decline, with logistics and Gaussians being popular choices. This goes back to M. King Hubbert (and I’ve done some of this myself). The United States is the poster child for this kind of analysis, since this region was the first to be developed at scale and production peaked in 1970. However, it seems increasingly clear that the US production curve is far from symmetrical (perhaps driven by higher prices since the 1970s, and especially in the 2000s). Using data from the EIA for production and reserves, we can see that the decline side is slower than the growth side for both.

A note on Hubbert’s hypotheses and techniques

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This note aims at exploring the scientific foundations and therefore the scope of validity of these forecasting techniques. Looking at the basic assumptions of Hubbert’s thesis, it concludes that these techniques should not be used to forecast neither the peak (or plateau) of the annual production rate, nor the ultimate reserves of any mineral, unless given exceptional conditions.

Seymour Hersh on Iran’s nuclear capability, the Arab uprisings and Obama’s isolation

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The Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersh is back in the news this week with another explosive article that is ruffling some feathers at the White House. Seymour Hersh says the United States might attack Iran based on distorted estimates of Iran’s nuclear and military threat—just like it did with Saddam Hussein’s government in Iraq. Hersh reveals that despite using Iranian informants and cutting-edge surveillance technology, U.S. officials have been unable to find decisive evidence that Iran has been moving enriched uranium to an underground weapon-making center.

Also in this interview are Hersh’s views on the growing independence of US intelligence agencies, Obama’s isolation and the impact of the Arab Spring. [Excerpts]

Silence is deadly: I’m speaking out against Canada-U.S. tar sands pipeline

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The U.S. Department of State seems likely to approve a huge pipeline, known as Keystone XL to carry tar sands oil (about 830,000 barrels per day) to Texas refineries unless sufficient objections are raised. The scientific community needs to get involved in this fray now. If this project gains approval, it will become exceedingly difficult to control the tar sands monster.

A comment on: “Public Health Concerns of Shale Gas Production”

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A recent Post-Carbon Institute paper, “Public Health Concerns of Shale Gas Production,” (contained in: Natural Gas Report Supplements: Public Health Agriculture & Transportation) is plagued by irony: the authors’ (Brian Schwartz and Cindy Parker) commitment to protect public health nonetheless defaults into placing business interests ahead of the public interest.

Tranzicioni në prodhimin & furnizimin e ushqimeve – drejt një të ardhme pa burime fosile

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Krijimi i këtyre sistemeve është bërë i mundur nga burimet fosile të energjisë, burime të jashtëzakonshme energjie, një dhuratë që natyra ja bën vetëm një herë njeriut. Albanian translation of the Post Carbon Institute report ‘The Food and Farming Transition’.

The Peak Oil Crisis: An Announcement

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With little fanfare, a press release appeared last week on the website of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES)…There are many implications buried in this seemingly innocuous announcement. First, American readers should note that the British government recognizes that energy policy and climate change are inextricably linked so that you cannot formulate policies for one without the other…

Post Carbon Institute Natural Gas Report Supplements: Public Health, Agriculture, & Transportation

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The challenges posed by shale gas production have serious implications for the future of agriculture, transportation, and health in the United States. In this collection of articles, PCI Fellows explore what the Hughes Report means for these sectors.