Peak oil – June 8

-For first time in years, the world is producing more oil than it needs
-Bill Reinert Describes What the Future of Energy Looks Like to his University of Colorado Audience
-The Saudi Oil Problem
-Citi’s Ed Morse Has A Huge Note Blasting Everyone Who Believes In Peak Oil
-The Oil Bubble Is Popping, But Will It Pop Down To $67?
-Aggregate factors in the price of oil

The real reason the military is going green

The military imperative is to prepare. In many ways, it’s leading the way in the development of new energy sources, said Brandon Fureigh, advocacy director for the Truman National Security Project. And with a massive budget and an oversized carbon bootprint, the military is in a good position to drive innovation. “The military has always been a good testing ground for technology in general and one reason is they have a large budget,” he said, noting how ideas sparked by military research trickle into the general business arena. Its budget for clean energy has tripled in the last four years to $1.2 billion.

Oil prices

It’s worth a comment on oil prices which have been collapsing with remarkable speed lately. Firstly, let’s briefly recap the price history of the last five years, which I have divided into eight eras…

Commentary: Why doesn’t the UN take peak oil into account?

In thousands of ways, UN policy helps shape how we respond to emerging crises, from basic poverty to world political events, from food to climate change and population. What is emerging, however, is that UN analyses are increasingly diverging from reality – as they attempt to describe our future, they have failed to adequately (or at all) take into account that most basic of all considerations, material limits on energy resources.

Thinking in miracles

I saw this cartoon in a comment on a post about optimistic oil supply projections at the oil analysis site The Oil Drum — which is must-visit if you are interested in the future — a rich cluster of technical experts clustered around a single blog. It was relevant to the post — broadly, the projections being critiqued needed good fortune pretty much everywhere, and not a single instance of bad luck — but it also made me think of the role of miracles in futures analysis.