Oil prices

It’s worth a comment on oil prices which have been collapsing with remarkable speed lately. Firstly, let’s briefly recap the price history of the last five years, which I have divided into eight eras…

Thinking in miracles

I saw this cartoon in a comment on a post about optimistic oil supply projections at the oil analysis site The Oil Drum — which is must-visit if you are interested in the future — a rich cluster of technical experts clustered around a single blog. It was relevant to the post — broadly, the projections being critiqued needed good fortune pretty much everywhere, and not a single instance of bad luck — but it also made me think of the role of miracles in futures analysis.

Commentary: Why doesn’t the UN take peak oil into account?

In thousands of ways, UN policy helps shape how we respond to emerging crises, from basic poverty to world political events, from food to climate change and population. What is emerging, however, is that UN analyses are increasingly diverging from reality – as they attempt to describe our future, they have failed to adequately (or at all) take into account that most basic of all considerations, material limits on energy resources.

ODAC Newsletter – June 1

Fears that Spain may be heading for a bailout, weaker than anticipated US growth, and signs that China is not about to embark on any major fiscal stimulus saw oil prices drop again sharply on Wednesday. May has now seen the biggest monthly oil price drop since December 2008. Should the decline continue we will soon be in territory which makes the marginal, more costly to produce barrel uneconomic.