Modifying Hubbert’s model of peak oil to account for a rise in production due to higher prices

Here I describe some interesting new research on modifying Hubbert’s model of peak oil to take into account the incentives for additional production that higher oil prices would be expected to bring.

The IMF research should help raise awareness of an issue that remains underappreciated by many economists, which is that we will eventually reach a point, and may have already, at which quite significant increases in price and improvements in technology can produce only modest increases in production, or may be insufficient to prevent outright declines in annual crude oil production levels.

ODAC Newsletter June 15

This week saw the release of the annual BP statistical energy review. In the words of the press release 2011 was a year of “disruptions to supplies and ever-increasing demand”. The big stories for oil were supply disruption in Libya, a record average oil price of $100/barrel, an average annual Brent price rise of 40%, a decline in OECD consumption of 600,000 bpd, and an increase in US production of 275,000 bpd — the largest increase outside OPEC…

Peak oil – June 14

-The future of oil prices – Chris Nelder
-World Economic Financial and Political consequences of the Post Peak Oil Era: Chris Sanders [video]
-‘Oil shock’ hitting consumer demand former Tesco CEO warns
-World oil reserves up 8 percent, supply fears persist

An influential global voice warns of runaway emissions

Few international figures have been as consistent in warning about the threat posed by global warming as economist Fatih Birol, of the International Energy Agency. In an interview with Yale Environment 360, Birol explains why the situation is worsening and what needs to be done to significantly slow emissions.

Everything is bullish (in its own way)

My apologies to Ray Stevens, writer of the 1970s hit “Everything Is Beautiful,” the lyrics and title of which I’ve morphed into the title of this piece. But with that I note the perpetual bullishness of the financial industry in the face of what is really an ongoing debt deflation. Every incident, every turn of events is summarized by the industry as a “bullish development.”

ODAC Newsletter – 8 June 2012

At the end of March, when Brent traded at around $125 per barrel, Saudi oil minister Ali al Naimi wrote a sharply worded article in the FT claiming there was no justification for such high oil prices, and Brent has since slumped to $100, which happens to be the Saudi target price. The decline is likely to be temporary, however, and Mr al Naimi soon shown to be as influential as King Canute…