Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Oil prices plunged to less than $89/barrel this week, an eighteen-month low, amid deepening economic gloom. Suddenly everyone is in the business of predicting just how far the oil price might fall – Credit Suisse has forecast $50/barrel – and for how long. One particularly interested and anxious observer is likely to be Vladimir Putin. With around 50% of Russia’s revenue coming from oil and gas the Kremlin is worried about the potential for a budget shortfall.
-Why oil prices are keeping Putin up at night
-Russia: oil gloom over St Petersburg
-Putin Pushes International Oil CEOs For Access To Assets
Over the next two to three weeks, I am going to post a series of short articles utilizing graphics I created from the recently released 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The topic of this first article in the series is oil reserves.
Yesterday, I was musing over the fact that global oil supply has pretty much stopped growing in 2012, and that this seems strange given that prices are falling. My hypothesis yesterday was: the global economy is still growing so oil demand must be still growing. Thus with flat supply, prices should be growing. The fact that they are falling must thus represent fears about the future (Eurozone triggered financial implosion).
-Walkable Neighborhoods Can’t Just Be For Rich People [report]
-UK cyclists take different paths [report]
-Future Options for Heavy Transport Vehicles [video]
Geological Consultant Arthur Berman explains to the ASPO 2012 conference his view that the “gold rush” period of shale gas in the US is over. As Art puts it “Once you start drilling shale wells you can never stop…shale plays are not a renaissance or a revolution, this is a retirement party. “
Last week the 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy was released. I always look forward to the release, because the data represent the most comprehensive, publicly available database on energy consumption and production statistics. I have now read through this year’s report, picking out what I believe are important trends and data points.
-Energy expert Byron King on peak oil, natural gas and rare earth [video]
-Chart of the week: a picture of world oil
-Europe shale push shaken by Exxon’s Poland pullout
-‘Carbon capture’ too risky, earthquake prone: US study
Nate Hagens speaks at the ASPO 2012 International Conference. Nate overviews the fundamental flaws in current economic thinking – the elephants in the room.
A weekly review including:
– Oil and the Global Economy
– Europe at a turning point
– The Iranian confrontation
– An IEA appraisal
– Quote of the Week
– Briefs
We don’t see a peak for the year 2000, nor we see it for 2005. If the peak had been in 2000 or 2005, we should be already seeing a significant production decline. What we see, instead, is a plateau that has been lasting for the past five years or so, interrupting the growth trend that had been the rule from 1983. So, no peak so far, but clearly “something” has been happening with oil production starting with the first decade of the 21st century, considering also the remarkable increase in oil prices of that period. But what’s happening, exactly? Where is the peak? Should we expect it soon, or is it delayed for a long time?
Psychologist Daniel Kahneman likes to pose the following problem to audiences to illustrate our habitual modes of thinking: A bat and a ball cost $1.10 together and the bat costs one dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?
