Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Every week another article comes out arguing that peak oil is dead and that we are in a new era of liquid fuel abundance. In the first of a series Andrew McKay takes on the authors of these overly optimistic puff pieces and explains paragraph by paragraph exactly why these people are so wrong.
Americans are reading, almost on a daily basis, about increasing oil and gas production in the US. For example, Daniel Yergin wrote about his optimistic outlook for increasing US oil and gas production in an OpEd piece in the June 10, 1012 New York Times entitled “Americas New Energy Reality.”
It’s certainly true that US oil and gas production has rebounded from the production low following the 2005 Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, but a careful analysis of the production data suggests that the production outlook it not quite as rosy as most people seem to believe.
There’s a lot going on in the TV show The Walking Dead that’s worthy of comment, but there’s one aspect of the show that has struck me in particular- that the civilization we’ve built and have come to depend on, could be undermined in short order, returning us quickly to a survivalist state of nature.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which had been selling for $105 a barrel at the end of March, fell to $80 a barrel last week, while Brent has come from $125 down to near $90. These price declines will translate into substantial savings for U.S. consumers in the weeks ahead.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
-Conferences
-Ten to Follow On Twitter
-Five Featured Videos
The modern end-of-the-world imagination often seeks out great Hollywood-style cataclysms: an asteroid collision, all-out nuclear war, a solar flare that wipes out the electrical grid, even a worldwide epidemic that leaves few alive. Less compelling is the possibility of relentlessly rising death rates that finally overwhelm birth rates and quietly set worldwide population on a downward path.
– Notes From “Oil Supply And Demand Symposium, New York City”
– The Folly of Energy Independence
– The European Refining Blues
– As Rock Phosphate Runs Out, What is More Important – Food Crops or Fuel Crops?
Oil prices plunged to less than $89/barrel this week, an eighteen-month low, amid deepening economic gloom. Suddenly everyone is in the business of predicting just how far the oil price might fall – Credit Suisse has forecast $50/barrel – and for how long. One particularly interested and anxious observer is likely to be Vladimir Putin. With around 50% of Russia’s revenue coming from oil and gas the Kremlin is worried about the potential for a budget shortfall.
-Why oil prices are keeping Putin up at night
-Russia: oil gloom over St Petersburg
-Putin Pushes International Oil CEOs For Access To Assets
Over the next two to three weeks, I am going to post a series of short articles utilizing graphics I created from the recently released 2012 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. The topic of this first article in the series is oil reserves.
Geological Consultant Arthur Berman explains to the ASPO 2012 conference his view that the “gold rush” period of shale gas in the US is over. As Art puts it “Once you start drilling shale wells you can never stop…shale plays are not a renaissance or a revolution, this is a retirement party. “
Yesterday, I was musing over the fact that global oil supply has pretty much stopped growing in 2012, and that this seems strange given that prices are falling. My hypothesis yesterday was: the global economy is still growing so oil demand must be still growing. Thus with flat supply, prices should be growing. The fact that they are falling must thus represent fears about the future (Eurozone triggered financial implosion).
