Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. [excerpt]
Much of the migration we are seeing today is from countries which export resources to wealthy nations. In other words, we are seeing mass migrations from resource exporting countries where carrying capacity is being systematically undermined toward countries that are importing that carrying capacity.
The poor in the South African townships are feeling the brunt of it already, a growing electricity crisis that will squeeze already meagre household incomes, spur inflation, add to the costs of essential foods, and raise transport costs in a country whose mass transport systems are utterly inadequate. Already saddled with a more than 30% hike in metered power costs for this year, they were told to expect a hike of a further 150% over the next three years.
Tuesday will see the release of the influential International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009. Last year’s blockbuster from the report was the declaration that the equivalent of 6 Saudi Arabia’s would need to come online by 2030 in order to meet demand and offset depletion of existing fields.
It is now 4 months since I wrote The Decline of the American Empire. The time is ripe for a follow-up. I will tell a sad story first, talk a little about our precarious banking system, and then relate the lessons learned back to my Decline theme. At the end I will talk about what all this means for the loosely structured peak oil “movement”.
A weekly review including:
– Production and prices
– A leak from the IEA
What Arthur Berman is saying is that natural gas companies that extract shale are mis-estimating how quickly natural gas production will decline in the future–they are assuming gas production will decline more slowly than evidence indicates it will. As a result of their optimistic assumptions about decline rates, they are assuming that shale gas can profitably be extracted for as long as 50 years, when Berman believes the average well life is only about 8 years.
-The age of the train: myth or reality?
-Buffett gambles £27bn on rail to get back on track
-Buffett’s Bet on Trains
-Is Warren Buffett’s Railway Buy a Billion Dollar Bet on Big Coal?
-It’s Time to Rebuild Our Passenger Railroad System
-India jumps on gold bandwagon but Warren Buffett rides the growth train
As a high-school teacher, I wanted to give my thoroughly-industrial, suburban-NJ students a more detailed peek at their upcoming post-industrial future. I felt the need to challenge their prevailing mindsets regarding our resource-depletion predicament: the “shorter showers & change the light-bulbs” crowd, the “engineers will surely come to our rescue” folks, and the “problem? — what problem?” people. This essay and the before/after comparison chart that follows are part of my ongoing (unsanctioned) attempts at doing so.
One of the best things about being invited to present at conferences and events is that I get to meet the other speakers, and usually talk with them in at least a semi-relaxed setting. Generally speaking, at a good conference I can count on meeting at least a few people who I’ve never heard of, but should have, at least one person who I regard with a measure of awe (sometimes even more), and a whole lot of just plain interesting people doing important work.
-The heart of India is under attack
-Shale gas blasts open world energy market
-Shale gas numbers may not add up
-It’s a dirty business — the new gold rush that is blackening Canada’s name
This month Scientific America is back on track with a cover story entitled “A Plan for a Sustainable Future – How to get all energy from wind, water and solar power by 2030.” Getting rid of, or at least making a start on getting rid of fossil fuels in the U.S. over the next 20 years is something we should all be thinking about – especially if we want to leave much of anything to the grandchildren.
