Fossil Fuels

Can we handle the truth?

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) released World Energy Outlook 2009 today. Even before the sham was shipped, it was exposed as a big ‘ol bucket of lies. Seems the current administration thinks Americans can’t handle the truth, so we need to apply some pressure to keep the lid on the facts. If this country’s paragon of transparency (i.e., world’s leading liar) and master of hope (i.e., wishful thinking) actually trusted the American people, perhaps we could avert chaos.

Gasoline Price Causing Big-Vehicle Sales

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The retail price of gasoline in the U.S. is extremely low, not just compared to the summer of 2008. Subsidies both direct and hidden create a true cost at least a few times higher than the visible price. The actual cost is paid largely through income taxes (such as for wars in the Middle East and domestic infrastructure), in the purchase of goods and services associated with “free” parking, and even medical care for car/fuel related mortality and morbidity. When the average gasoline price is $2.66 a gallon, according to news reports on the most recent Lundberg Survey, the message to the consumer is “Buy that big vehicle.”

The Peak of the Oil Age – The Uppsala World Energy Outlook

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A new study, accepted for publication in the journal Energy Policy, analyzes the oil production forecast done by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2008. It highlights several shortcomings as well as confirms other parts. It concludes: “our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts… The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.”

Out of Pretoria, out of power

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The poor in the South African townships are feeling the brunt of it already, a growing electricity crisis that will squeeze already meagre household incomes, spur inflation, add to the costs of essential foods, and raise transport costs in a country whose mass transport systems are utterly inadequate. Already saddled with a more than 30% hike in metered power costs for this year, they were told to expect a hike of a further 150% over the next three years.

ODAC Newsletter Nov 6

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Tuesday will see the release of the influential International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009. Last year’s blockbuster from the report was the declaration that the equivalent of 6 Saudi Arabia’s would need to come online by 2030 in order to meet demand and offset depletion of existing fields.

More natural gas controversy

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What Arthur Berman is saying is that natural gas companies that extract shale are mis-estimating how quickly natural gas production will decline in the future–they are assuming gas production will decline more slowly than evidence indicates it will. As a result of their optimistic assumptions about decline rates, they are assuming that shale gas can profitably be extracted for as long as 50 years, when Berman believes the average well life is only about 8 years.