Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
On the eve of the International Energy Agency’s release of its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO), a whistleblower at the IEA claims the agency “has been deliberately underplaying a looming [oil] shortage for fear of triggering panic buying” in the world markets.
At last we know…sort of. An article in the UK newspaper The Guardian for November 9, titled “Key Oil Figures Were Distorted by US Pressure, Says Whistleblower,” reveals what hundreds of analysts have been trying to convey to world leaders for years: The global oil supply situation is critical and getting worse, and vested interests are playing key roles in covering up this devastatingly inconvenient truth.
Standard economic principles have demonstrated that price is a function of supply and demand. The same is true for the recent oil prices fluctuations we have witnessed over the last few years, namely the equilibrium between supply and demand. However, the following conundrum has not been resolved: are oil prices high due to greater demand or too little supply?
Matthew Simmons, Chairman of “Simmons & Company International”, is the world’s largest private energy investment banker. Moreover, he is a leading expert on the crucial topic of Peak Oil. In the following interview, Mr. Simmons talks about the on-going recession, explains why we might have reached an end of growth and gives his reading of last year’s oil price spike.
The Saudis are exploring the opportunity to sell their oil on more transparent exchanges in which they feel they have some logical control over production levels and pricing in relation to world demand, and also be paid in currencies outside the anemic US dollar. Such a mover would be a great influence on all of OPEC. This has crucial implications for the US as it could take oil trading from US exchanges and eventually outside the dollar as the currency of trade.
“World leaders gathering in Copenhagen next month for the UN Climate summit have a historic opportunity to avert the worst effects of climate change. The World Energy Outlook 2009 seeks to add momentum to their negotiations at this crucial stage by detailing the practical steps needed for a sustainable energy future as part of a global climate deal,” said Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency today in London at the launch of the new WEO – the annual flagship publication of the IEA.
I am not surprised that some within the International Energy Agency (IEA) have leaked this news. Rather, it is astonishing that this has not become known earlier. (See the article in the Guardian: Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower.)
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released World Energy Outlook 2009 today. Even before the sham was shipped, it was exposed as a big ‘ol bucket of lies. Seems the current administration thinks Americans can’t handle the truth, so we need to apply some pressure to keep the lid on the facts. If this country’s paragon of transparency (i.e., world’s leading liar) and master of hope (i.e., wishful thinking) actually trusted the American people, perhaps we could avert chaos.
A weekly review including:
– Production and prices
– Recovery or Speculation?
– Climate Change
– Peak Demand
– Quote of the Week
– Energy Stat of the Week
– Briefs
This year’s Petroleum Geology Conference in London included the following item on the agenda:
Peak Oil: Advancing the topical debate over the timing of peak oil & gas…
The retail price of gasoline in the U.S. is extremely low, not just compared to the summer of 2008. Subsidies both direct and hidden create a true cost at least a few times higher than the visible price. The actual cost is paid largely through income taxes (such as for wars in the Middle East and domestic infrastructure), in the purchase of goods and services associated with “free” parking, and even medical care for car/fuel related mortality and morbidity. When the average gasoline price is $2.66 a gallon, according to news reports on the most recent Lundberg Survey, the message to the consumer is “Buy that big vehicle.”
A new study, accepted for publication in the journal Energy Policy, analyzes the oil production forecast done by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2008. It highlights several shortcomings as well as confirms other parts. It concludes: “our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts… The fact that global oil production has very probably passed its maximum implies that we have reached the Peak of the Oil Age.”
