Energy Policy

A new energy report from Harvard makes unsupportable assumptions

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There is no evidence from the top three oil producers (Saudia Arabia, Russia and the U.S) that their production will be even close, in total, to current levels by the end of the decade.

Now there comes an Energy Study from Harvard which boldly states that this is rubbish – that by 2020, global production will be at 110.6 mbd and these concerns that most of us have at The Oil Drum (inter alia) are chimeras of the imagination.

It is therefore pertinent to begin with examining where the study (which was prepared with BP assistance) anticipates that the growth in supply will come from.

While nations blow hot air, it’s cities that are the real sustainability heros

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Though cities are responsible for about 70 per cent of global warming emissions, it’s a rare city that owns, regulates or reaps taxes, jobs or other benefits from oil, gas or coal reserves or many of the companies that spin off these resources.

As often as not, high emissions in cities are the result of subsidies and other practices embedded at the national level. Resource and allied companies (pesticide and fertilizer companies, for example) hold sway at the national, not city, level.

ODAC Newsletter – June 29

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This week saw further confirmation that all is not well in the shale gas industry as ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson admitted “We are all losing our shirts today.”…”We’re making no money. It’s all in the red.” The news comes as little surprise since the price of production is estimated to be around $4-7/per million BTUs and prices have been languishing around $2…

Peak oil – June 28

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– Has The Peak Oil Idea… Peaked? If so, does the planet stand a chance?
– Oil: the party is over, says OpenMind AM
– Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson: The New North American Energy Paradigm: Reshaping the Future
– Australia’s growing oil imports are an energy security issue
– 10 mouse clicks to calculate Australian crude oil depletion of 83 per cent

The Cussedness of Whole Systems

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There’s an interesting divergence between the extreme complexity of the predicament that besets contemporary industrial civilization, on the one hand, and the remarkable simplicity of the failures of reasoning that have sent us hurtling face first into that predicament, on the other. Nearly all of those failures share a common root, which is the inability—or at least the unwillingness—of most people in the modern world to pay attention to the natural cussedness of whole systems.

Take-home messages from ASPO 2012 conference in Europe

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– Peak-Oil is now! (true but there is some delay due to unconventional oil and gas)
– Plateau Oil now! (true, since 2005 at just above 80 Mb/d, but not for very much longer as the potentials of unconventional oil and gas are extremely limited)
– The precise moment of PO is not so important anymore, as we are probably already at or closely before the peak according to many.

[Great summary]

New study forecasts sharp increase in world oil production capacity, and risk of price coll

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Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020, which could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, according to a new study by a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy School (Leonardo Maugeri, a former oil industry executive).

Finding real economic leadership in the wake of Rio+20

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Twenty years after the seminal “Earth Summit” on sustainable development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil once again has hosted a “fate-of-the-earth” meeting (Rio+20) focused on the themes of a green economy and institutional change. In the aftermath of the 1992 meeting, too many nations, including the United States in particular, failed to reverse the downward trend in planetary ecosystem health. Today, with a global population of 7 billion consuming resources beyond the ability of the earth to replenish itself, we’d better hope there’s a better attempt at the transition to a sustainable economy after this meeting.

ODAC Newsletter – June 22

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Oil prices plunged to less than $89/barrel this week, an eighteen-month low, amid deepening economic gloom. Suddenly everyone is in the business of predicting just how far the oil price might fall – Credit Suisse has forecast $50/barrel – and for how long. One particularly interested and anxious observer is likely to be Vladimir Putin. With around 50% of Russia’s revenue coming from oil and gas the Kremlin is worried about the potential for a budget shortfall.