Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Confusion around the true extent of the spare oil production capacity of Saudi Arabia increased this week following a statement by Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi that his country had reduced production in March by 800,000 barrels–this despite the loss of 1 million barrels/day of production from Libya. Al Naimi went on to claim that global markets are currently oversupplied.
The IEA reported this week that there are preliminary signs of oil demand destruction due to soaring prices. Goldman Sachs underlined this viewpoint on Tuesday by advising its clients to sell oil, copper, platinum and cotton. Prices fell in response, although concern over conflict in the Middle East and Saudi production saw prices nudging up again by the end of the week.
Imagine a nuclear reactor that runs on fuel that could power civilization for millennia; cannot melt down; resists weapons proliferation; can be built on a relatively small parcel of land; and produces little hazardous waste. It sounds like a good idea, and it was a well-tested reality in 1970 when it was abandoned for the current crop of reactors that subject society to the kinds of catastrophes now on display in Japan.
Whether or not renewables can save consumer-capitalist society depends heavily on solar thermal electricity, because unlike wind and photovoltaic energy it can be coupled with large scale storage and so can deal much more effectively with the problem of the intermittency of wind and sun. But can it enable total dependence on renewables?
Full talks from speakers including Dr. Joseph Tainter, Nicole Foss (Stoneleigh), David Korowicz, Stephanie Mills, Kurt Cobb and Aaron Wissner now available for all educational uses. The YouTube playlist includes the full first day of the Conference on Sustainability: Energy, Economy and Environment, including question and answer and panel discussions.
It may seem a bit over the top to say that a book entitled Into the Cool is the coolest book I’ve ever read on energy. But energy junkies should take note of its two compelling theses: First, the eventual heat death of the universe – a supposed consequence of the Second Law of Thermodynamics – has, to borrow a phrase from Mark Twain, been greatly exaggerated. Second, life – in all its forms – is NOT an anomaly made improbable by the aforesaid Second Law, but rather a direct and likely inevitable consequence of it.
The oil price hit a two and half year high this week of $123/barrel as the Libyan conflict continues to dominate market sentiment. This pushed the sterling value of crude to an all time high, exceeding even its level in the summer of 2008 when the dollar price reached $147/barrel, because the pound has slumped 17% against the greenback since then.
Professor Emeritus of Agricultural Economics of the University of Missouri at Columbia John Ikerd argues that humans cannot wait much longer to address the reality that economic growth is unsustainable—because the world is running out of energy resources. “We simply can’t continue to grow at the rate we’ve been growing in the past.”
In 2004 I was an idealistic young college graduate who hoped to change the world. I was convinced that the prospect of declining worldwide oil production loomed, and that people must heed my calls for energy conservation and radically-relocalized living. The world didn’t seem to change, but to my surprise, something else did—my hometown.
The oil price firmed to around $117 this week as evidence emerged of the impact of the Libyan crisis on the oil supply. Bloomberg reported that OPEC oil output dropped in March as Saudi Arabia failed to make up the loss in production from Libya. Reuters reported that Saudi has unexpectedly called on oil companies to expand its drill count by 30%. It is not clear whether this is in an attempt to add further spare capacity, or whether the kingdom is struggling to raise production.
What I object to is this style of science based on press releases which are only hype and no substance. I understand that scientists are human beings and they like to be in the spotlight once in a while. I understand also that one may need to use these methods in order to get research grants. But, in the long run, this is something that only generated false hopes and disillusion.
At the same time, it’s important to have a realistic understanding of efficiency’s limits. Boosting energy efficiency requires investment, and investments in energy efficiency eventually reach a point of diminishing returns. Just as there are limits to resources, there are also limits to efficiency. Efficiency can save money and lead to the development of new businesses and industries. But the potential for both savings and economic development is finite.
