Consumption & Demand

Global world product will not grow at 4%+ for five years

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You can see that the IMF is basically forecasting five years of pretty good growth – near the top of the historical range, but certainly not above it. They are not projecting any serious global slowdowns, still less an outright global recession (those are rare – 2009 was the only case in the last thirty years)…This requires the world come up with another 17mbd of supply in the next five years, though it only managed to come up with about 3-4mbd over the last five years, and that took a quadrupling of prices to achieve. I don’t see where this much oil can possibly come from.

Alternatives to Nihilism, Part Two: Lead Us Away From Here

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Among the sources of the pervasive cynicism of contemporary America, especially but not only displayed around energy issues, is the belief that the United States is a sham democracy controlled by a malign elite. It’s hard to think of a bit of conventional wisdom more widely held, on all sides of the political continuum, but like a great deal of today’s American credos, it deserves a hard second look, for there’s more going on here than meets the eye.

Ten years on the road, part one

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For ten years now, we have been driving the highways of the United States, sometimes stopping in a town for a year or so, sometimes just drifting from place to place… . We’ve broken free of the growing entrapment of modern life by refusing to keep working long hours in meaningless jobs when we didn’t have to, saving instead of spending, keeping on the move, eating less but healthier, and staying in good physical condition.

ODAC Newsletter – Apr 15

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The IEA reported this week that there are preliminary signs of oil demand destruction due to soaring prices. Goldman Sachs underlined this viewpoint on Tuesday by advising its clients to sell oil, copper, platinum and cotton. Prices fell in response, although concern over conflict in the Middle East and Saudi production saw prices nudging up again by the end of the week.

A new Pickens plan: Good for the U.S. or just for T. Boone?

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Three years ago, with a flurry of national publicity, billionaire Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens outlined his vision of how to help wean the U.S. off imported oil. The crux of the plan was to build a massive, $1 trillion network of wind farms stretching from Texas to North Dakota, which would replace domestic natural gas used to generate electricity. The excess natural gas would then be used to power millions of American trucks and cars, thus freeing the U.S. from the shackles of OPEC oil.

Happiness movement hits the UK

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A new global movement for happiness was launched Tuesday in the UK. Action for Happiness is supported by more than 4,500 members including the Dalai Lama. Based on the new science of happiness, the movement suggests that the keys to happier living lie in actions such as Giving, Relating and Accepting.

Media coverage has been extensive:
– 20 Happiness Facts
– Don’t worry, every little thing’s gonna be all right
– Switch off, chip in, be happy, say activists
– My advice for the happiness lobby? Start with drugs
– Britons becoming ‘increasingly miserable’, warns happiness group
– Happy evangelists take on the cynics
– It’s time the right looks beyond its prejudices and understands what this agenda is about

The breakdown of economic expansion in the 21st century

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My thesis is that global economic expansion has broken down, and where there are pockets of economic growth as in China or Brazil, it is unlikely that growth will continue for much longer. (I am thinking on decadal scales.) Clearly this is a subject for a book, whereas today I am going to outline why this thesis is credible in a blog post.