The Trajectory of Empires

Strong as empires seem, every empire that’s ever existed has collapsed, except the one currently owned by the United States–and the odds on that one’s survival aren’t looking good just at the moment. Behind the rhythm of rise and fall that shapes the lives of empires lies a familiar relationship between the pressures toward limitless growth and the inevitable limits of a finite world.

A pile of straw at the bottom of the cliff

There is an old Russian saying: “If I had known where I would fall, I would have put down some straw there.”

At last year’s ASPO-USA conference, I wanted to correct what I see as a major flaw in the narrative of Peak Oil: the idea of a gentle, geologically-driven decline in oil production, which seems quite unrealistic. But I also wanted to look beyond it and sketch out some plans that would work after oil production dives off a cliff.

If we start setting aside a “Peak Oil Tithe” around when Peak Oil occurs, and if we deploy all that we’ve stockpiled when the fossil fuel economy can no longer support us, the resulting post-collapse economy is quite a lot smaller than the fossil fuel economy, but still large enough to support a significant portion of the current population, albeit at a much lower standard of living.

Book Review: Tiny Homes, Simple Shelter: Scaling Back In The 21st Century

…Tiny Homes, Simple Shelter is a compilation of like-minded people’s stories. The common thread that weaves between the stories is the builders’ immense pride of place, a drive for independence and a vision that, when little goes to waste, life can have greater meaning.

 

China beefs up alternatives to industrial agriculture to improve food security

China’s agricultural development in recent decades has contributed to the country’s increase in food security and reduction in poverty. However, the country continues to face persistent rural poverty in fragile agroecological regions, increasing socioeconomic inequality, feminization and aging of the agricultural workforce, environmental degradation, and erosion of biodiversity…Farmers, led by women, have organized new local organizations for technology development, seed management, and market linkages.

Imperial leftovers

French overseas territories are very dependent on oil. Unlike in France proper, most of their electricity is produced by diesel generators. Nearly everything has to be imported and the tourism sector is highly dependent on the continued availability of a reasonably cheap air transport.

As the age of cheap and abundant energy comes to an end, France, and presumably The Netherlands and Britain as well, will be less and less able to afford those imperial leftovers at the other side of the world. At some point of the future, they will have to get rid of them, and violence is very likely to be a part of the equation.

Energy – Feb 28

– Telegraph: Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama
– Geoengineering is going to happen. Desperate people do desperate things,
– Gas: climate panacea or industry propaganda?
– Gingrich is wrong on both gun racks in Chevy Volts and US energy policy
– La future rente des gaz de schiste: une malédiction à conjurer par l’intelligence

Rebuttal to the director of the US Geological Survey on peak oil

On Feb. 6th, Dr. Marcia McNutt, Director of the US Geological Survey, delivered a lecture at IU entitled “US Energy Outlook: Whatever Happened to ‘Peak Oil?’” According to the press release announcing this talk, “Not so many years ago, the public heard much concern that the nation, and the globe, had or was about to reach the point of peak oil production and would be on a downward trajectory due to declining resources. The current fact is that despite growing demand for energy, fossil fuel resources have never been higher.”

The main problem with Dr. McNutt’s talk is that it was based on a critical evasion. “Peak oil” is not simply about the resource base – it’s about the flow rate of petroleum. More ominously, it suggests that officials in positions of national responsibility cannot or will not level with the public.

Move Our Money: Should we create more state banks?

We may not be able to beat the banks, but we don’t have to play their game. We can take our marbles and go home. The Move Your Money campaign has already prompted more than 600,000 consumers to move their funds out of Wall Street banks into local banks, and there are much larger pools that could be pulled out in the form of state revenues.

Occupy the US: How do we create new political structures that work?

The year 2011 has breathed new life into horizontal models of democratic decision-making. With the rise of the take-the square movement and the occupy movement horizontal decision-making became one of the key political structures for organising responses to the current global economic crisis. While this decision-making process has arguably never been as widely practiced as it is today, it has also never seemed as difficult and complicated as it does today…It is no longer just activists trying to use and teach each other these decision-making processes but it is hundreds or thousands of people who have a far greater disparity in terms of backgrounds, starting assumptions, aims and discursive styles. This is incredibly good news, but it is not easy.

A food system that needs citizen Occupation (and farmers!) – Feb 28

-Before the Food Arrives on Your Plate, So Much Goes on Behind the Scenes
-Big Food Must Go: Why We Need to Radically Change the Way We Eat
-We are the 2 Percent: Occupy our Land, Occupy our Food
-“American Meat”: Not Just Another Food Documentary