Staff

Global Trends 2025: A transformed world (excerpts)

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The U.S. intelligence agencies dust off their crystal ball and give us their long-term view of the future. In a striking reversal of the triumphalism of the Bush years, the report sees the future as multi-polar and roiled by shocks. Resource scarcity and climate change are highlighted. Despite the bracing dose of reality in the report, peak oilers will find much to criticize. (Excerpts, links, commentary)

Timing is everything

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The key question is whether we have the time for said gradual energy transition. … Should the analogy be the American entry into World War II which led to a command economy directed by the federal government with the aim of winning the war? One could certainly argue that the United States did not make optimal use of its resources during World War II. But, it did win.

Book review: Plan C

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In Murphy’s typology, Plan A is “Business as Usual”- which will be prevented by absolute resource and environmental constraints; Plan B is the proposed switch to “Clean Green technology”- which will not be able to replace oil in time; while Plan D is “Die Off”. Thus we are lef twith Plan C which the plan of “curtailment and community”- the kind of responses being explored in the Transition movement, as well as our own Powerdown Community project, for which this book is a key resource.

For an energy future, look to the past

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A response to a request for new ideas from the Obama-Biden Transition team: “Our nation and our people are passing into the most dynamic shift in direction since the beginning of the industrial revolution in 1750. We are going from a time of future promise to past wisdom. We are entering a time when we need to relearn old, simple lessons combined with a liberal application of efficient, low energy, low capital and high technology solutions. For the first time in human history, we will have to model the future after the past.”