Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Steven R. Kopits The price of oil is once again daily in the news. The Western Europe benchmark Brent crude has hovered near $100 / barrel for much of the last month, and the IEA is again warning of the burden of oil consumption. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or a mere statistical blip in a market that is “well supplied”? How will events play out in oil markets in the coming year or two?
The more that we can create alternative systems by channelling our consumption and investment and convince others these are great ways of living, and consistent with what we’re trying to achieve long term, I think that’s the way we’re going to succeed.
Last year a German military report on peak oil was leaked: “Peak Oil: Implications of Resource Scarcity on Security.” Last month, the final report was officially released by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center. It is available online in German. [Excerpt]
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the Global Economy
-The IEA’s Oil Market Report
-China worries the IEA
-Oil and economic growth
-Briefs
The food crisis is manifestly just that – a crisis. At the same time, there’s another side to this coin. Rising food prices are to some extent good for farmers. And there are plenty of people, me included, who have been arguing for years that we don’t pay enough of the true costs of our food. So who is right? How do you balance the merits and demerits of food prices?
When big-thinkers at companies with the most skin in the energy game are behind closed doors and they discuss how the world really looks going forward, do they say that there are bumps in the road but that things will be fine, just fine, as they suggest publicly? Three years ago, we got a glimpse into the room when Royal Dutch/Shell issued a scenario forecasting the world in 2020. Based on current economic and energy-use patterns around the world, Shell said that energy supplies will be so tight that they will tip the world into a full-blown crisis in which governments will force their populations to reduce driving, use less electricity, and pay an extremely steep increase for what they do consume. Today, Shell returned with an update. If the world does not change how it uses energy, its scenario will hold true.
Hozho enfolds a concept that we westerners vehemently and vocally reject: inevitability. We are the people of the fabled “fat lady”—nothing is over till she sings, and even then we hold out hope that game officials will reverse the call on further review and deliver a last-minute miraculous victory for our side. The idea that things just “are the way they are”, no matter what we do, goes against our ingrained, up-by-our-boot-straps belief that we are the masters of our fate. If something ain’t right it’s just because we haven’t fixed it yet. We only need to think harder, work longer, swear louder—and, by God, beat some balance back into this thing.
– How Cyber-Pragmatism Brought Down Mubarak
– Another Step Toward Mainstreaming Nonviolence
– How to Build a Progressive Tea Party
– Wendell Berry Joins Retired Coal Miners and Residents in Kentucky Capitol Sit-in
I draw three conclusions from the study. First is that wherever our economy has penetrated most deeply, wherever it most completely dominates life, that’s where the least happy people are most likely to be.
Confidence provides strengths for a society, but only when coupled with clear vision. Unfortunately modern America too-often too often sees the future only in terms of doomsters’ pessimism and advocates’ optimism. Here we have a case study of the latter. Coal-to-liquids will not be cheap oil. It’s one part of the solution for the next several generations. Not the largest part, and certainly not a panacea.
– Special National Geographic Series: 7 Billion
– A world too full of people – let’s invest in family planning
– Biology’s Bomb: Graphing ‘Explosive’ Population Growth in Cold War Textbooks
– Paul Krugman: Droughts, Floods and Food
– China bids to ease drought with $1bn emergency water aid
– U.N. Food Agency Issues Warning on China Drought
– North Korea appeals to foreign governments for food aid
– NYT’s Andrew Revkin: Egypt, Inkblots, Agendas and Feeding 9 Billion
– Wes Jackson: Halting obsession with carbon is key to sustaining agriculture
-Produce prices skyrocket with freeze in Mexico, Southwest
