Tom Murphy

Nuclear options

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A recent thrust on Do the Math has been to sort our renewable energy options into “abundant,” “potent,” and “niche” boxes. This is a reflection of my own mathy introduction to the energy scene, the result of which convinced me that we face giant—and ultimately insurmountable—hurdles in our quest to continue a growth trajectory. It is not obvious that we will even manage to maintain today’s energy standards…Meanwhile, requests for me to address the nuclear story are mounting. So before readers become mutinous, I should interrupt the renewable thread to present my nuclear reaction.

There Is More to It than Oil

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The end of our industrial lifestyle paradigm will be dictated by Liebig’s Law, and by humanity’s response to its consequences. Unfortunately, it is impossible to know at this point which increasingly scarce nonrenewable natural resource (NNR) or NNR combination will ultimately prove to be industrialized humanity’s limiting factor.

Consequently, humanity’s global societal collapse may be triggered by scarcity associated with one or more NNRs other than those commonly considered “most critical” to the perpetuation of our industrial lifestyle paradigm—fossil fuels, or oil specifically. After all, the space shuttle Challenger disaster was caused by a faulty o-ring.

Climate Change, Migration and Conflict: Addressing Complex Crisis Scenarios in the 21st Century

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The costs and consequences of climate change on our world will define the 21st century. Even if nations across our planet were to take immediate steps to rein in carbon emissions—an unlikely prospect—a warmer climate is inevitable…As these ill effects progress they will have serious implications for U.S. national security interests as well as global stability—extending from the sustainability of coastal military installations to the stability of nations that lack the resources, good governance, and resiliency needed to respond to the many adverse consequences of climate change. And as these effects accelerate, the stress will impact human migration and conflict around the world.

Solar power off the grid: Energy access for world’s poor

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More than a billion people worldwide lack access to electricity. The best way to bring it to them — while reducing greenhouse gas emissions — is to launch a global initiative to provide solar panels and other forms of distributed renewable power to poor villages and neighborhoods.

Book Review: The Post Carbon Reader (Daniel Lerch interview)

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Let’s make this clear from the beginning: The Post Carbon Reader is not an easy read. Indeed, if you’re looking for a breezy take on the end of the world, I would instead recommend World War Z. But whereas Max Brooks’s novel is a gore-drenched take on the zombie apocalypse, I’d state that The Post Carbon Reader is much more horrifying. There is little to fear of a rise of the undead. But throughout the Reader’s 450+ pages, it becomes clear just how and in what manner we are collectively destroying our fragile planet. … That said, The Post Carbon Reader is an essential read, for no other purpose to have the quotable facts and information readily available.

Food & agriculture – Jan 4

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-2012: The Year to Stop Playing Nice
-New Farmer School
-A Punch to the Mouth: Food Price Volatility Hits the World
-China’s Growing Urban Population Sprouts Urban Farms
-Students Say “Occupy Your Plate”, Plan to Converge at Retreat to Grow Food Cooperatives
-Organic Agriculture May Be Outgrowing Its Ideals
-Digging Into Potash Stocks

Energy – Jan 4

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– Goldman Sachs thinks we’re close to maximum oil pumping capacity
– Robert Rapier Soliciting Feedback for His Energy Book
– University of Alaska Fairbanks professor predicts spike in oil prices
– UK “Energy trends” bulletin available

Maybe old tractors do die

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Ethanol in gasoline is not the wonder fuel it has been made out to be. It is causing problems when used in off-road vehicles— lawn motors, chain saws, boat motors, four wheelers, not to mention old tractors. Although I have had no cause to complain yet myself, I first heard rumors of these problems when 10 percent ethanol was added to gasoline (E-10 fuel. Now that the EPA has approved 15 percent ethanol in gasoline (E-15 fuel) the complaints are increasing.

Iran and the price of oil – Jan 3

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– NYT: Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
– Oil up 3 percent on Iran warning and U.S., China data
– Iran risk accounts for up to $10-15 of oil price: Reuters’ Kemp (video)
– Crude Oil Prices Could Rise This Year, But Prices Could Be Very Volatile
– Conflict in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?

How resilient are we? A New Zealand immigrant’s perspective

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When the time came to pull up stakes, our desire to pursue self-sufficiency meant that a destination with a temperate climate and reliable rainfall was a prerequisite. A job opportunity came, we did our research, weighed the pros and cons, and trusted intuition that this place offered better-than-average odds of weathering the gamut of changes that seemed to be imminent.