Excessive optimism is our enemy, with Coal-to-liquids as a case study

Confidence provides strengths for a society, but only when coupled with clear vision. Unfortunately modern America too-often too often sees the future only in terms of doomsters’ pessimism and advocates’ optimism. Here we have a case study of the latter. Coal-to-liquids will not be cheap oil. It’s one part of the solution for the next several generations. Not the largest part, and certainly not a panacea.

The pursuit of happiness

I draw three conclusions from the study. First is that wherever our economy has penetrated most deeply, wherever it most completely dominates life, that’s where the least happy people are most likely to be.

Food & agriculture – Feb 13 (updated Feb 14)

– Paul Krugman: Droughts, Floods and Food
– China bids to ease drought with $1bn emergency water aid
– U.N. Food Agency Issues Warning on China Drought
– North Korea appeals to foreign governments for food aid
– NYT’s Andrew Revkin: Egypt, Inkblots, Agendas and Feeding 9 Billion
– Wes Jackson: Halting obsession with carbon is key to sustaining agriculture
-Produce prices skyrocket with freeze in Mexico, Southwest

Paul Erhlich interview- Humanity on a tightrope

There is no question our food system is incredibly dependent on fossil fuels, and we are not showing any sign of transitioning off of them. Which means that the fossil fuels get more expensive, scarcer, and more importantly, as the climate system changes ever more rapidly, it’s going to clobber agriculture. You clobber agriculture where people get hungry and have nuclear weapons – and you can paint your own scenarios. They are not going to be painted in sky-blue happy colors.

Preface to a Prelude to Peak Oil

Prelude may be the first thriller novel explicitly about peak oil (numberless thrillers concern the nefarious machinations of international oil conglomerates — ultimately those are stories about peak oil too). It follows a short period in the life and career of Cassie Young, an oil industry analyst based in Washington, DC.

Enough childish name calling

In an article peppered with inaccuracies and faulty logic, the author makes a claim that is way off target – an accusation that those advocating a steady state economy are misanthropists. On the contrary, we want to see good lives for all, now and into the future, secured through sound management of our ecological assets, and a quality of life that includes meeting material needs – but recognizing material needs as only one aspect of the totality of being human.

ODAC Newsletter – Feb 11

Saudi Arabia’s recoverable oil reserves may have been overstated by 40%. That was the warning sent to Washington from its embassy in Riyadh in 2007, according to a cable released by Wikileaks this week. The source was Sadad al-Husseini, former head of E&P at Saudi Aramco, who allegedly told US diplomats in Riyadh that Saudi’s claimed reserves of some 700bn bbls were overinflated by 300 billion barrels of ‘speculative resources’, and that output would peak once the kingdom had produced half of its original proven reserves of 360bn barrels. With 116bn produced so far, the diplomats concluded that on this basis Saudi’s peak could come in the early 2020s.