Oil

Future of food in Japan

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One concern is how import-dependent Japan might cope with the advent of the peak of oil production and a possible oil price crunch. Paul Stevens at Chatham House, one of the world’s leading think tanks, argued in 2008 that an oil crunch could occur when the oil price goes over US$200 per barrel with severe macro-economic impacts….While other reports place the peak of world oil production at a later date between 2015 and 2020, the timing is academic when considered in the context of whether Japan would have the time to respond effectively in terms of reorganizing its entire food system.

Great Decisions: Energy Geopolitics

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The energy markets have been shaken by the instability of Middle East oil and the vulnerability of nuclear power. Against the backdrop of European crisis and and high U.S. unemployment, what does this changing energy landscape mean for national and global economies in 2012? Daniel Lerch presents as part of the Great Decisions Series of the World Affairs Council of Oregon, January 2012.

The Attack on Science & Scientists

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Dr. John Mashey investigates the right-wing billionaires & corporations who pay alleged “charities”, bloggers, and old weathermen to deny climate science. Then Canadian journalist Margaret Munro on government muzzling scientists, plus an update from Union of Concerned Scientists Francesca Grifo on science freedom in U.S.

A pile of straw at the bottom of the cliff

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There is an old Russian saying: “If I had known where I would fall, I would have put down some straw there.”

At last year’s ASPO-USA conference, I wanted to correct what I see as a major flaw in the narrative of Peak Oil: the idea of a gentle, geologically-driven decline in oil production, which seems quite unrealistic. But I also wanted to look beyond it and sketch out some plans that would work after oil production dives off a cliff.

If we start setting aside a “Peak Oil Tithe” around when Peak Oil occurs, and if we deploy all that we’ve stockpiled when the fossil fuel economy can no longer support us, the resulting post-collapse economy is quite a lot smaller than the fossil fuel economy, but still large enough to support a significant portion of the current population, albeit at a much lower standard of living.

Energy – Feb 28

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– Telegraph: Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama
– Geoengineering is going to happen. Desperate people do desperate things,
– Gas: climate panacea or industry propaganda?
– Gingrich is wrong on both gun racks in Chevy Volts and US energy policy
– La future rente des gaz de schiste: une malédiction à conjurer par l’intelligence

A Fog of Mendacity

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Those frightening sounds, sights, and odors on the wind this foreboding snowless winter — like emanations from some back ward of a global psychiatric hospital — are the signs of a nation going completely mad. The traumatic rise of oil prices above the $100 level is one irritant, prompting a range of people-who-oughta-know-better to gibber and fulminate as though they’d been locked in the nation’s attic since Thanksgiving with nothing to do but play with a box of pencils. Meanwhile, several absurd “narratives” circulate around the mainstream media that are sure to cause this country more trouble — as any set of pernicious untruths will.

Rebuttal to the director of the US Geological Survey on peak oil

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On Feb. 6th, Dr. Marcia McNutt, Director of the US Geological Survey, delivered a lecture at IU entitled “US Energy Outlook: Whatever Happened to ‘Peak Oil?’” According to the press release announcing this talk, “Not so many years ago, the public heard much concern that the nation, and the globe, had or was about to reach the point of peak oil production and would be on a downward trajectory due to declining resources. The current fact is that despite growing demand for energy, fossil fuel resources have never been higher.”

The main problem with Dr. McNutt’s talk is that it was based on a critical evasion. “Peak oil” is not simply about the resource base – it’s about the flow rate of petroleum. More ominously, it suggests that officials in positions of national responsibility cannot or will not level with the public.

Why are gas prices high?

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Gas prices are going up again, resulting in a lot of discussion by people who don’t normally think about the oil markets, and therefore aren’t necessarily that well informed about the subject. As a certified oil-obsessive these last seven years, I thought I’d put up a “cheat sheet” with just the key graphs that would allow you to understand the major forces that affect the behavior of gas prices over time.

Why oil prices are so high: Production shortfall, Iran concerns, and low interest rates

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Rising oil and gasoline prices are of concern to many people today. I see three basic issues involved: “Stalled out” growth in world oil supply, concerns about Iran, and artificially low interest rates. In my view, the biggest contributor to high oil prices is the first one–stalled out oil supply. At this point, the interaction between oil demand and oil supply does not work in the way most people expect it would. Even if the price of oil rises, world oil production doesn’t increase by very much, if at all.

Gas prices set records, soon to reach new highs

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Mainstream media outlets throughout the country are now reporting on record-breaking gas prices, the highest ever for this time of the year. Also making the rounds is the commonly cited prediction by former Shell CEO John Hofmeisterthat there is a better than 50 percent chance that gas prices will reach $5 a gallon by this summer in the U.S. This is in spite of the fact that U.S. oil production is up and oil consumption down, since 2008. What the media isn’t reporting on is the rest of what Hofmeister said in a recent peak oil themed debate he had with Tad Patzek on Feb. 14.

Why do political and economic leaders deny Peak Oil and Climate Change?

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Until a miracle happens, scientists and some enlightened policy makers are trying to extend the age of oil, reduce greenhouse gases, and so on. But with the downside of Hubbert’s curve so close, and the financial system liable to crash again soon given the debt and lack of reforms, I don’t know how long anyone can stretch things out.