Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Thursday saw the long awaited UK energy bill finally presented to parliament. Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Davey described the bill as "good for the British economy, good for consumers, and good for the planet". So what is it good for?…
•The IEA announces the decline of a number of major oil producing countries •Oil Watch – OPEC Crude Oil Production (IEA) •Offshore Oil-Drilling Primer for Concerned People of All Ages [new textbook’s chapter]
There is a growing disconnect between forecasts of prodigious amounts of oil coming out of the Middle East in coming decades and what is likely to happen in the region.
A week of brutal bombing and rocket fire between Israel and Hamas pushed oil prices back to around $110/barrel this week. A fragile ceasefire is now in place, but there is much concern that it will be short-lived. Oil market news may all be about US production, but it is primarily the politics and geopolitics of the Middle East that is still driving global oil prices.
A mid-week update.
Recent US news reports have highlighted the fact that US oil production has been rising and is now higher than it has been in years. Reports that highlight the recent US oil production increase don’t mention that oil production outside of Texas and North Dakota has actually declined in the last few years.
•US shale oil abundance: Bernstein vs the IEA •US limits oil-shale development in Rocky Mountains •Fracking: A new dawn for misplaced optimism •Nigeria Exxon spill spreads for miles along coast •Thousands Protest Keystone XL Oil Pipeline Outside White House •The World Running on ‘E’: The Coming Oil Crisis
A weekly update, including:
•Oil and the global economy
•The Middle East
•The IEA’s forecast
•Quote of the week
•Briefs
Was the most recent American election outcome determined by the presidential debates, changing demographics, voter views on issues, Hurricane Sandy (and the president’s reaction to it) or voter turnout?
Global oil production has been on a plateau, at historically high prices, for so long now that it seems unlikely that it will ever resume sustained growth at the rates we saw in the decades prior to 2005. The only possible outcomes are prolonged stagnation, which some like to call the “bumpy plateau”, or decline of global production. The rate of decline, of course, will be critical to the future of the global economy and is the core of the IMF’s recent paper.
The US as the new Saudi Arabia, energy insecurity for most of the rest of the world, and climate chaos for everyone – such were the headline points of the latest World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency.
A midweek update.
