Oil

The peak oil debate is over

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“Large conventional oil production is increasingly no longer part of the future. We must expect to get along without what has been our critical energy source in expanding the world’s economy for more than half a century. But acceptance [of the idea of peak oil] by knowledgeable people is not enough.

“Our willingness, let alone our ability, to do anything serious about the impending inability to increase oil output is still a long way off. The political order responds to what the public believes today, not to what it may come to believe tomorrow.”

Dr. Schlesinger has served as Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (1971-73), Secretary of Defense (1973-75), Director of the CIA and was the first Secretary of Energy (1977-79).

Keynote address to the recent ASPO-USA conference in Washington D.C. (transcript and video) .

ODAC Newsletter – Oct 29

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Big oil was smiling this week as Q3 profits rose on the back of higher oil prices. Prices are 12% higher than last year, and according to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are likely to go higher, even above $100/barrel, by next year. Such a price rise may provide a test of OPEC’s ability to raise production…

Highlights from seventh Advances in Energy Studies Conference in Barcelona

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Last week, I participated (as an invited speaker) in the 7th Advances in Energy Studies Conference in Barcelona, Spain. Other invited speakers were Charlie Hall, Joe Tainter, Marcel Collel, and Seth Blumsack. Other Oil Drum staff members at the conference were Ugo Bardi and Dave Murphy–Ugo as one of the speakers, and Dave as the second author on Charlie Hall’s presentation. Dave also asked lots of good questions! In this post, I give a few highlights of the conference.

Once in a Lifetime: This is Not My Beautiful Lawn

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A “perfect” lawn is a truly human artifact, a triumph of elegance and simplicity, using machines, chemicals and Poa pratensis in its making. We need an aesthetic sense that an ornamental landscape’s beauty isn’t only about visual effect, but about holistic function–about how the landscape contributes to the biotic community, to the ecosystem’s health.

OPEC will never run out of oil

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Through an accident of plate tectonics and other developments over geological time, most of the world’s remaining recoverable oil is situated around the Persian Gulf. This is unfortunate for us because we will thus never have a reasonable, universally agreed-upon estimate of the amount of oil left to produce. Let me explain.

Chicken Little, peak oil and Y2K

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The trouble with Chicken Little is that he neither had a practical plan to address the problem of the falling sky nor the sense to discern the intentions of Foxy Loxy who ultimately devoured Chicken Little and his friends before they could reach the king to tell him that the sky is falling. As such, Chicken Little gives us poor guidance about the effect that the efforts of those involved in the peak oil movement will likely have. A better analogy would be the so-called Y2K problem.