Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
There are simply too many people out there who will never sit through a talk or read a book of non-fiction about our energy situation, but who would read a novel that lays the issues out clearly in the language of fiction. Cobb took on this project, not to write a best-selling novel, but to write the kind of book you can give to your sister-in-law who won’t read the other books you want to give her!
This special show highlights contributors to the Post Carbon Reader: Managing the 21st Century’s Sustainability Crises. John Kaufmann was lead staff for Portland, Oregon’s Peak Oil Task Force, and he has consulted with local governments around the continent on how to prepare for energy scarcity. He describes how local governments are planning for scarcity, and what they’re missing (hint: a lot). Michael Shuman is Director for Research and Economic Development at BALLE, the Business Alliance for Local, Living Economies. He describes the surprising cost competitiveness of local businesses, despite government policies designed to destroy them.
The world is going to get rounder and bigger again. We’ll discover — surprise! — that the global economy was a set of transient economic relations that obtained only because of a half century of cheap energy and relative peace between the big nations.
The disconnect between the American body politic and reality grows larger every day. In reviewing hundreds of pages of commentary on the election, one searches in vain for analysis that even come close to describing what is happening to the nation – i.e. we are in the midst of a massive deflating credit bubble and running short of affordable liquid fuels at the same time.
For those addicted to more roads, airports and the sweet smell of gasoline, the IEA’s 2010 World Energy Outlook includes some pretty sober reading.
“I have seen a lot of people not quite getting what economically might happen. I have seen a lot of people assuming there is a kind of energy decline curve, so that economy might sort of to follow that. But we are entering this decline curve with the highest level of leverage, or debt, on record. We have been towering up huge amounts of debt that requires constant growth. So I see the possibility, again a risk, of a more disruptive future than perhaps others do.”
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-World Energy Outlook 2010
-China
-Briefs
-Quote of the week
– Matthieu Auzanneau in Le Monde: Why the Pentagon is pessimistic (the influence of Matt Simmons)
– NYT blog: Is ‘Peak Oil’ Behind Us?
– Kjell Aleklett interview: Peak Oil: Not if but when
– Arab News: Energy world facing unprecedented uncertainty
– New Statesman: The age of cheap oil is over
– Huffington Post:
Peak Oil Finally Piquing Analysts?
– Oil Falls the Most in Three Weeks on Speculation China May Increase Rates
In The Maltese Falcon a character tells detective Sam Spade, “By Gad, sir, you’re a character, that you are! Yes, sir, there’s never any telling what you’ll do or say next, except that it’s bound to be something astonishing.”* I’m telling Bob Hirsch the same thing. There’s no denying the man’s considerable credentials within the energy industry, nor his contribution to peak oil scholarship as principal author of the first major U.S. government report to take the issue seriously. But neither is there any predicting what outlandish thing he’ll propose next in his efforts to spread the message.
My goal in writing Prelude was to help to create a self-reinforcing spiral of awareness, to break out beyond the peak oil community, beyond even the sustainability community, and to reach people who know little or nothing about such issues.
Anyone who has spent much time discussing peak oil, the collapse of civilizations, climate change or modern security issues eventually confronts the issue of historical antecedents. The [Insert choice of vanished civilization here] collapsed because of X, and that’s the same thing that is happening now . . . . For those who have delved more deeply into such lines of argument, one thing becomes abundantly clear: historical civilizations did not collapse for a single reason. Fast-forward to present, and there is no shortage of commentary forecasting crisis or collapse of our modern civilization. But these analysts have failed to advance a comprehensive systems-theory approach to our civilization’s troubles. Enter Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed.
Making the step from raw farm products to cans in a consumer’s pantry is not trivial. It takes more than access to equipment, it also takes business and marketing sense, relationships with area stores and restaurateurs and compliance with state regulations, to name a few.
