Oil

Does peak oil even matter?

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It is easy to become befuddled by the current discourse on peak oil. Peak oil is defined generally as the point at which the flow rate of oil to society has reached a maximum. But this simple definition has issues too, such as what should be considered “oil.” Take, for example, the following sentences from the executive summary of the International Energy Agency’s recent publication of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2010[1]…According to this data, a peak in the production of conventional crude oil occurred in 2006, but a peak in total “oil” production (including unconventional resources such as tar sands, natural gas liquids, etc.) may not occur for some time. So, should we consider this a confirmation of peak oil or not?

Understanding the oil markets — 2010 Version

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I’m starting to think that the oil markets in 2010 are just a more chaotic version of the markets as they were in 2007. You will recall that in 2007 oil the price was rising, demand was outstripping supply, OPEC said the markets were well-supplied, and would not raise output quotas and the Venezuelans were saying $100/barrel was a fair price for oil. Most of this has happened just in the past week.

Preparedness for fuel supply disruptions

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This article is in response to last month’s article by Kathy Leotta and her colleagues, Observations on local governments’ preparedness for fuel supply disruptions. First, I congratulate Kathy on her earlier research and thank her for reviving this neglected topic in her most recent paper. The purpose of my submission is to support and supplement various observations made by the Leotta team.

Oil supply emergencies: An annotated bibliography

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The literature on Liquid Fuel Emergencies is considerable, dating back to rationing during World War Two. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) in the USA did some exceptional work for two decades (1975- 1994). Unfortunately, there have been relatively few studies during the past 15 years, with the notable exceptions of the comprehensive analysis by Alan Smart for the Government of Australia and Kathy’s research in the USA.

Review: Twilight in the Desert by Matt Simmons

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A year ago peak oil author Dave Cohen christened 2009 “A Year We Will Live To Regret.” But as it happens, 2010 has brought its own mother lode of discouragement, failure and tragedy. It began on the heels of the bungled climate change summit in Copenhagen, a major blackout in southern France and news of a disastrous crash in Yemen’s oil revenues. Before the year had rounded its halfway mark, it had presided over the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. And as if all this weren’t enough, 2010 also saw the sudden and unexpected death of one of the very icons of the peak oil movement, the revered Matthew R. Simmons.

How peak oil could save Obama’s presidency

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America is in the doldrums and President Obama risks becoming a one-term president. For too long politicians have treated the words “peak oil” as political cyanide. But could coming clean about the world’s energy challenge be just what Obama needs to save his presidency while giving America a boost at the same time?

Peak energy, climate change, and the collapse of global civilization: the current peak oil crisis

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This report is a synthesis of the current state of knowledge on energy resources and global climate and environmental change. The findings clearly indicate that the convergence of peak energy resources and dangerous anthropogenic climate and environmental change will likely have a disastrous impact in the near- and long-term on the quantity and quality of human life on the planet
[Excerpts from a free online book from a group at University of California at Santa Barbara.]

Oil limits lead to state budget squeezes

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Without increased revenue, legislatures will have no choice but to make deep cuts in spending. Some argue that peak energy in general, and peak oil specifically, implies that the current levels of revenue are a “new normal.” If that is the case, the cuts made next year may well be permanent. … As a member of a state legislative budget staff, I helped with new member orientation every two years… This essay provides an accessible (and hopefully interesting) look into the possible consequences of the budget crises on state government spending.