Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
The biggest stories of 2010 were financial. But you could say that the continuing Great Recession, the deficit debate, and more and more mortgage defaults were really stories of energy-driven economic crisis. This year also had plenty of big stories directly on energy, including some breakthroughs on peak oil. Here are our top picks. It’s a highly subjective list; so please chime in with any stories you think we left off.
If we look at a graph of historical world oil production, we see a somewhat bumpy production pattern with two major price spikes (in 2009 $)–one peaking in 1981 and one peaking in 2008. The first spike in prices occurred when Persian Gulf production dropped starting in 1980, so seems to be oil supply related. The second spike occurred when world oil production would not rise above a bumpy plateau, despite rising demand, in the 2005 to 2008 period. In this post, I will show some breakdowns that I think give a little insight into our current situation.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-Iran
-US Natural Gas
-China
-Briefs
“Fuel demand continues to strengthen, a positive sign for the economy.”
– John Felmy, Chief API economist
“Latent conditions in technology and organisation can exist for a significant time, waiting for circumstances to line up that create a calamitous accident. … A systemic perspective is essential to shed light on the complex interplay of actions and how the loss might have been prevented.”
Christmas comes but once a year and its excesses pack a crippling punch. Then there’s all those “so what’s new in your world” conversations. Bringing up peak oil feels tricky. How to cope? Let me count the ways…
We all remember the oil price run-up (and run back down) of 2008. Now, with prices similar to where they were in the fall of 2007, the question quite naturally arises as to whether we are headed for another similar scenario.
Now that global peak oil is history perhaps it’s time to work on predicting peak empire instead. If you followed the work of Joseph Tainter, he offered the theory of diminishing and eventually negative marginal return to territorial growth and complexity of societies.
Post-Carbon and Heinberg are telling a critical story – but the actors they need to engage, all the hands they want on deck are not engaged, because they aren’t part of the tale. That needs to change.
– The value of a nuclear Iran (Shi’ite oil)
– Green War: “Because the Earth is worth the fight!” (greenwashing)
– S. American mountains hold key to electric car’s future: lithium for batteries
“If I plant a garden and all my neighbors are starving, I’ll have to share it with them and it’s not going to go very far,” says Gail Tverberg, known to readers of the Oil Drum as Gail the Actuary. “You have to solve the problem for the whole population.”
Maybe that’s why Tverberg thinks that people who care about peak oil need to reach out beyond energy buffs to a larger public
– We Don’t Talk About That Kind of Thing Around Here (Transition and spirituality)
– Transition, Deep Transition and Solagaia in Maine, Colorado, California and Beyond
– The unrevolution
– Kurt Cobb’s Peak Oil” novel – radio interview
– With Peak Oil Looming, Gulf States Consider Ending Fossil Fuel Subsidies
– Coal Interests Fueling Gingrich’s Cash-Burning 527
– When energy comes to a Senegalese village, do people get more healthy, wealthy and wise?
– Poor people’s energy outlook 2010
