Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
Last week, three official forecasters the IEA in Paris, the EIA in Washington, and the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna, released new forecasts of global oil prices and the availability during the next two years. This may be a critical time for global oil production which is hardly growing at all; and consumption in some parts of the world has been increasing rapidly.
A report launched today by the Lean Economy Connection, commissioned by the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, calls for a nationwide system for ensuring fair and equal access to fuel as energy scarcities develop. The report, entitled Tradable Energy Quotas, sets out a detailed proposal for a scheme which would ensure fair and equal entitlements to fuel and energy under conditions of scarcity, while also guaranteeing that the government meets its commitment to an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050.
I’m sure we all have our own pet scenarios, and many experts have excellent and credible reasons for believing one of those is more likely than others. I would argue that as a movement, however, peak-oil activists do better to focus on the common outcomes of high, low or fluctuating oil prices, than to try to predict which path energy prices will take. The end-results matter most.
It’s not the apocalypse. And it’s certainly not the Death Star or the planet Tatooine. But The Windup Girl is a compelling vision of our industrial world as it could be in a low-energy future. Paolo Bacigalupi’s techno-political thriller imagines how, in the time after peak oil and economic collapse, global trade could return via airships and GMOs.
A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the Global Economy
-China’s coal production
-The Australian floods
-BP and Rosneft
-Quote of the week
-Briefs
If you expect a model – any model – to be able to predict the future you are going to be sorely disappointed. The Hubbert model is no exception, but many models can tell you enough about the future that you may prepare for it.
-Shale gas: a provisional assessment of climate change and environmental impacts (report)
-Shale gas moratorium in UK urged by Tyndall Centre
-Warning over UK shale gas projects
-Opponents to Fracking Disclosure Take Big Money From Industry (NEW)
– OPEC pumping at near maximum
– Jack Gerard, head of API, on peak oil
– Tverberg: Problems with corn ethanol
– Hidden Pitfalls of Increasing U.S. Dependence On Canadian Oil Sands
If you write about, speak about, or talk with your family, friends and co-workers about peak oil, you’ve almost certainly been asked: “Well, who else is saying what you’re saying?”
This week saw the release of the full report by the National Commission into the Deepwater Horizon Spill and Offshore Drilling. Last week’s pre-release of Chapter 4 saw blame for the disaster attributed to a culture of complacency around safety both in the industry and its regulators. This week’s full report included the commission’s recommendations…
For decades, economists (Cornucopians or optimists) have been at odds with natural scientists (Malthusians or pessimists) when it comes to the scarcity of natural resources.
A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Developments this week
-The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook
