My favorite Texas oilman Jeffrey Brown is pointing out to everyone who will listen that the supposed oversupply of crude oil isn’t quite what it seems. Yes, there is a large overhang of excess oil in the market. But how much of that oversupply is honest-to-god oil and how much is so-called lease condensate which gets carelessly lumped in with crude oil? And, why is this important to understanding the true state of world oil supplies?
Haven’t we been hearing from the oil industry and from government and international agencies that worldwide oil production has been increasing in the last several years? The answer, of course, is yes. But, the deeper question is whether this assertion is actually correct.
The famous Danish physicist Niels Bohr once humorously observed, "Predictions are very difficult, especially about the future." And so, as the world considers yet another rosy oil supply forecast, this time from the Paris-based International Energy Agency, it is worth reviewing the agency’s record.