Industry

World oil production – Looking for clues as to what may be ahead

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If we look at a graph of historical world oil production, we see a somewhat bumpy production pattern with two major price spikes (in 2009 $)–one peaking in 1981 and one peaking in 2008. The first spike in prices occurred when Persian Gulf production dropped starting in 1980, so seems to be oil supply related. The second spike occurred when world oil production would not rise above a bumpy plateau, despite rising demand, in the 2005 to 2008 period. In this post, I will show some breakdowns that I think give a little insight into our current situation.

Will shale gas turn out to be an energy sink?

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We may ultimately find that shale gas is nothing but an energy sink. It will provide net energy for a while to those who are living now while burdening future generations with huge cleanup costs that, in terms of energy, may equal or exceed the energy gain we are currently receiving from this supposedly “clean” energy source.

Ingredients of Transition: Strategic local infrastructure

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The infrastructure required for a more localised and resilient future, the energy systems, the mills, the food systems and the abbatoirs, has been largely ripped out over the past 50 years as oil made it cheaper to work on an ever-increasingly large scale, and their reinstallation will not arise by accident. They will need to be economically viable, supported by their local communities, owned and operated by people with the appropriate skills, and linked together.

Understanding the oil markets — 2010 Version

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I’m starting to think that the oil markets in 2010 are just a more chaotic version of the markets as they were in 2007. You will recall that in 2007 oil the price was rising, demand was outstripping supply, OPEC said the markets were well-supplied, and would not raise output quotas and the Venezuelans were saying $100/barrel was a fair price for oil. Most of this has happened just in the past week.

Preparedness for fuel supply disruptions

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This article is in response to last month’s article by Kathy Leotta and her colleagues, Observations on local governments’ preparedness for fuel supply disruptions. First, I congratulate Kathy on her earlier research and thank her for reviving this neglected topic in her most recent paper. The purpose of my submission is to support and supplement various observations made by the Leotta team.