Geopolitics & Military

OPEC says, ‘Don’t count on us’ for more supply

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The results of OPEC’s latest meeting to set oil production quotas were announced this morning. Instead of production targets for individual countries, a group production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day was set. This amount is a bit less than OPEC produced in November 2011 (actual 30.367 mbd), according to its reckoning, and less than it would have produced most of 2011, if Libyan production had stayed on line, based on the amounts shown in its November Oil Market Report.

A conversation with Dmitry Orlov about Europe

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There are many uncertainties to how a European collapse might unfold, but Europe is at least twice as able to weather the next, predicted oil shock as the United States. Once petroleum demand in the US collapses following a hard crash, Europe will for a time, perhaps for as long as a decade, have the petroleum resources it needs, before resource depletion catches up with demand.

Europe is ahead of the United States in all the key Collapse Gap categories, such as housing, transportation, food, medicine, education and security. In all these areas, there is at least some system of public support and some elements of local resilience. How the subjective experience of collapse will compare to what happened in the Soviet Union is something we will all have to think about after the fact.

ODAC Newsletter – Dec 9

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OPEC head Abdullah El-Badri warned European leaders on Wednesday against imposing sanctions on Iranian oil, stating that the 865,000 barrels a day which goes mostly to Southern Europe would be difficult to replace. Global supply is already tight and oil prices remain stubbornly high despite the chronic Euro-crisis…

Iran – possible implications of an oil embargo

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Does Thursday’s announcement that the EU is considering to ban oil imports from Iran epitomise the draining of power from west to east? The big winners here will be China and India, who do not fear rising Iranian influence and who will gladly soak up any additional oil exports they may have to offer. However, ending this small dependency upon Iranian oil imports in Europe does clear the way for military action without the need to ponder the immediate consequences on oil imports.

GRAIN calls for end to land grabbing at Swedish Parliament

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On 5 December 2011, GRAIN received the 2011 Right Livelihood Award, often referred to as the “Alternative Nobel Prize”, at the Swedish Parliament in Stockholm. GRAIN was awarded “for its worldwide work to protect the livelihoods and rights of farming communities and to expose the massive purchases of farmland in developing countries by foreign financial interests”. GRAIN seized on the opportunity to demand an immediate end to land grabbing and a restitution of lands to local communities. The following speech was delivered to the Swedish Parliament by GRAIN coordinator Henk Hobbelink during the Awards Ceremony.

Playing with fire: Obama’s risky oil threat to China

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When it comes to China policy, is the Obama administration leaping from the frying pan directly into the fire? In an attempt to turn the page on two disastrous wars in the Greater Middle East, it may have just launched a new Cold War in Asia — once again, viewing oil as the key to global supremacy.

ODAC Newsletter – Dec 2

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Evidence that the oil price is killing the economy came by the tanker-load this week. The FT reported that the cost of oil imports to the EU has increased from $280bn in 2010 to $402bn this year. Meanwhile the newly created Office of Budget Responsibility for the UK named oil prices as a key factor in a drastic downward revision of its economic and fiscal outlook released this week…

Pepperspraying the future

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What do a whiff of pepper spray rising from a suburban big box store, a breathtakingly absurd comment by an American politician, and a breathtakingly cynical statement from a Canadian minister have in common? Arguably, an attitude that helps to explain why the political, economic, and cultural institutions of today’s industrial societies are committed to doing anything and everything in response to the crisis of our time, except the options that would actually help. With a little help from history, the Archdruid explains.

How big is Exxon’s gamble in Kurdistan? (Answer: BIG)

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Has ExxonMobil — the annoyingly prissy schoolboy who always obeys the teacher — risked weakening one of its distinguishing pillars in order to break into a single oil patch? And if so, could that shake up the global oil market along with geopolitics?

We are referring to the news, indiscreetly disclosed by a Kurdistan official last week, that the northern Iraqi region has signed an oil exploration agreement with Exxon. The reason this is a problem is that Kurdistan has been in a long-standing turf war with the folks in Baghdad over how to divide the spoils from its hydrocarbon riches.