Geopolitics & Military

Geopolitical implications of “Peak Everything”

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From competition among hunter-gatherers for wild game to imperialist wars over precious minerals, resource wars have been fought throughout history; today, however, the competition appears set to enter a new–and perhaps unprecedented–phase. As natural resources deplete, and as the Earth’s climate becomes less stable, the world’s nations will likely compete ever more desperately for access to fossil fuels, minerals, agricultural land, and water.

United States – Jan 8

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– Foreign Affairs: Globalization and the Threat to the West (an elite change in direction?)
– Republican Climate Hawks Sighted in New Hampshire (video)
– Matt Taibbi: Iowa: The Meaningless Sideshow Begins
– Obama’s Pentagon Strategy: A Leaner, More Efficient Empire
– Harder for Americans to Rise From Lower Rungs

ODAC Newsletter – Jan 6

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The New Year failed to ring in the customary changes this time round. The great economic hangover moves into its fourth year with many predicting that things will take a turn for the worse during 2012. Geopolitically, the standoff between the West and Iran escalated over the holiday, hoisting oil prices over $113/barrel once again.

The peak oil crisis: closing out the year

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The year ended with little change in the assessment for the prospects for global oil supplies. Despite all the hype concerning new oil finds and technological breakthroughs in oil production, these developments still are not contributing enough new oil to offset the annual decline of 3 million b/d from existing fields and the annual increase of circa 1 million b/d of new demand. The bottom line among those following this issue is that global oil production likely will start to decline in the next one to five years as depletion gets ahead of very-costly-to-produce new sources of “oil.”

Climate Change, Migration and Conflict: Addressing Complex Crisis Scenarios in the 21st Century

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The costs and consequences of climate change on our world will define the 21st century. Even if nations across our planet were to take immediate steps to rein in carbon emissions—an unlikely prospect—a warmer climate is inevitable…As these ill effects progress they will have serious implications for U.S. national security interests as well as global stability—extending from the sustainability of coastal military installations to the stability of nations that lack the resources, good governance, and resiliency needed to respond to the many adverse consequences of climate change. And as these effects accelerate, the stress will impact human migration and conflict around the world.

Iran and the price of oil – Jan 4

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– EU agrees Iran oil embargo
– Iran’s Real Weapon Of Mass Destruction Is Oil Prices
– Iran prepares bill to bar foreign warships from Persian Gulf
– Obama Seeks to Distance U.S. from Israeli Attack (Iran)
– Iran’s new show of force
– Tehran Times: U.S. presence in Persian Gulf is damaging: Iran defense minister
– Nuclear Fuel Test Won’t Hasten Iran Bomb: Experts

Iran and the price of oil – Jan 3

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– NYT: Iran Warns the United States Over Aircraft Carrier
– Oil up 3 percent on Iran warning and U.S., China data
– Iran risk accounts for up to $10-15 of oil price: Reuters’ Kemp (video)
– Crude Oil Prices Could Rise This Year, But Prices Could Be Very Volatile
– Conflict in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?