Insight and inspiration in turbulent times.
The action in the investment markets ought to be a lesson for all those trying to envision what will happen in any complex system, especially one as complex as human society. Our powers of prediction are weak. We need to keep an open mind and observe carefully.
Action that President Barack Obama will take Monday to allow California and other states to require stricter tailpipe emissions and automobile fuel efficiency standards shouldn’t just please environmentalists. If you’re concerned about Peak Oil and the United States’ dependence on foreign oil, this is also a win for energy conservation.
A weekly review including:
– World Production
– OPEC still cutting
– Obama’s first week
– Briefs
Now it’s time for predictions for 2009. 1. The economy will muddle along. 2. A 2010 recovery will come just in time to collide with more fundamental problems. 3. Oil prices: we’ll spend a few months in the $30s and $40s and then end the year between $60 and $70/barrel.
A weekly round-up from a UK perspective
Doom Boom
Club of Rome: Crisis gives us an opportunity to rethink strategies
Bill McKibben Interview
Climate equity is in
The Dystopians
Interview with James Howard Kunstler
Top 100 Stories of 2008 #1: The Post-Oil Era Begins
Oil Price Over $100, in a Blink
The Cost of the Biofuel Boom: Destroying Indonesia’s Forests
Advice to Pres. Obama: go for wind power, seriously
Open Letter on Biofuels
Crunching Electricity Demand With Smart Grids
EntropyPawsed Solar Electric System
Iceland’s coalition struggles to survive protests
Renewing Renewables
Lessons from the Russian Gas Dispute
The big unknowns for 2009 are just how far and how fast the world’s GDPs are going to fall and just how fast the demand for oil will fall with them.
Oil price in July 2008 reached a staggering $147 a barrel, having doubled in price over the previous 12 months. Who would have thought, that within half a year, a dramatic oil-price freefall would bring oil to a 5-year low of $35 a barrel – a price drop of 76%.
However, even though many have sighed in relief, experts are heralding new dramatic spikes in oil prices.
Wednesday, Pemex is expected to release historic reduced output numbers. With everything going wrong with Mexico internally, what can the government do about losing revenue from its largest cash cow? Will Mexico continue to be a steady U.S. supplier? By the time it’s all over U.S. troops may be securing what’s left of Mexico’s oil fields.
