There is considerable disagreement among energy resource experts as to how many years we have left of oil given current estimates of what remains in the ground. The reason for the disagreement stems from diverse assumptions about production productivity, demand and even how much remains undiscovered. In this video, viewers will see how applying a system dynamics approach (used by the Club of Rome in developing The Limits to Growth analysis) can make all such assumptions explicit in a way that allows for collaborative testing. The video uses an online simulation model that interested viewers could access to test additional assumptions.
The video is a demonstration of an online scenario simulation tool designed to allow for exploring the implications of assumptions regarding the future of oil resources, focusing on production and demand. Where most estimates are developed using assumptions either implicit or at least inaccessible to the layperson, this model provides transparent assumptions that can be tested and modified to see various implications.
The model doesn’t predict exactly how long oil resources will last; rather it provides a “what if” ability to project the impact of assumptions into the future. For example, the model can test how long oil will last with current EIA resource estimates and constant 2008 demand. Of course, demand could change, so the model will allow for testing under different demand assumptions.
Chris developed this model not to develop the “final word” on estimates. Instead, he hoped to accomplish two objectives:
- Develop a starting framework to improve the quality of discussion around oil estimates, including how long we can expect oil to last.
- Present how using a system dynamics modeling approach can be useful for a host of pressing public policy issues of the day (including energy, environment, and economy).
Chris Soderquist is the founder of Pontifex Consulting, a sustainability consultancy. He has consulted with Sustainability Institute and Integral Institute.
